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With the start of the 2025 NFL regular season within sight, I’m going position by position to unveil my projections for 17 of the most notable defensive rookies this year.
A few notes before we dive in, for context:
Only five rookies have recorded 10 or more sacks since the start of the 2016 season.
The last five edge rushers to win Defensive Rookie of the Year — including Micah Parsons, who played a hybrid off-ball linebacker/edge rusher role — averaged 8.2 sacks as rookies.
Only five rookies have posted more than four interceptions since 2016 and none have corralled more than six.
Now, on to the forecasting. (And check back on Friday for my offensive rookie projections.)
EDGE RUSHER
Drafted: Round 1, No. 3 overall
Best-case scenario: Carter lives up to the hype — and then some — becoming the first rookie to post double-digit sacks since his fellow former Penn State star, Micah Parsons. Comps to Parsons appear to be legit, as Carter proves he’s one of the most talented and tenacious defensive players in the league.
Worst-case scenario: The Giants never figure out how to maximize Carter’s abilities with former first-round picks Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux also demanding snaps off the edge. A punchless New York offense puts the team’s defense in bad spots and allows the opposition to control the clock, snatching precious playmaking opportunities away from Carter.
Projected stats: 61 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 9 sacks.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 11 overall
Best-case scenario: Williams alleviates concerns about his ability to stay healthy, turning in a full and highly productive campaign. He establishes himself as the best option to play opposite Nick Bosa and injects a level of toughness to the run defense that was missing in San Francisco last season.
Worst-case scenario: The injury bug bites Williams again and keeps him from building any momentum. It ends up looking like he will need a longer runway to develop his pass-rushing acumen than the team had hoped, leaving open questions about whether he’ll be able to put it all together.
Projected stats: 45 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 5 sacks.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 15 overall
Best-case scenario: Walker emerges as the bedrock of Atlanta’s long-sputtering pass rush, providing a burst of energy off the edge. He becomes a leader in the Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation and supplies the leadership the Falcons could use after the departure of Grady Jarrett.
Worst-case scenario: The injuries that have sidelined Walker in camp and the preseason linger into the regular season and keep his rookie year from ever truly lifting off. His lack of ideal size as a full-time edge defender proves problematic and prevents him from shaking the tweener label.
Projected stats: 53 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 17 overall
Best-case scenario: The lengthy contract squabble between Stewart and the Bengals fades from memory, as he gets off to a fast start. Talk of his relatively meager college production similarly vanishes, with Stewart wreaking havoc in the backfield and posting the best sack total of any rookie this year.
Worst-case scenario: While there are moments when Stewart’s potential shines, they are few and far between. The struggle to get home in pass-rushing situations follows him into the league and he’s unable to spark a Cincinnati defense that once again holds the team back from achieving its goals.
Projected stats: 38 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 4 sacks.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 26 overall
Best-case scenario: The Falcons’ long pass-rush nightmare is over. Pearce wins with quick twitch and a relentless motor. He silences his doubters, pairing with fellow first-round pick Jalon Walker to give Atlanta an electric edge-defender duo.
Worst-case scenario: Pearce has a hard time countering the power of NFL blockers, too often getting washed out of plays. He fails to earn starting snaps and looks to be more of a project than an instant-impact difference-maker, leading to questions about whether the team whiffed by giving up next year’s first-round pick for him.
Projected stats: 36 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks.
