2025 NFL MVP race: Case for and against top 8 candidates entering Week 15

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In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season, including:

But to kick things off, a look at the MVP race with four weeks remaining in the regular season …

This is the time of year when the MVP race becomes real. The first three months of the season generally include a lot of hype and hoopla about whomever is the flavor of the week. December is something totally different. The sample sizes are large, and the pretenders don’t stand much chance of sticking around long.

This is why now is a perfect opportunity for The First Read to delve deeper into the MVP race. We know it’s turned into a two-man race lately — with the Patriots’ Drake Maye and the Rams’ Matthew Stafford as the favorites — but that doesn’t mean others can’t join the conversation as the season wind downs. This already has been a crazy year. It wouldn’t be shocking to see a little more chaos ensue as we determine who’ll win the most cherished individual award in the league.

So, here’s who should be in the discussion for MVP, along with predictions on how they’ll ultimately fare.

NOTE: The odds provided by DraftKings are current as of 1:30 a.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 8.

Why he could win: The Rams quarterback is enjoying the best season of his 17-year career, and he’s been the front-runner for this award for most of the past few weeks. Stafford rebounded from a three-turnover performance in a Week 13 loss to Carolina by throwing three touchdown passes in a 45-17 win over Arizona. Stafford now leads the league with 35 touchdown passes and he’s tossed just four interceptions. He also has led his team to victories over two of the league’s best defenses — Houston and Seattle — and the Rams still have marquee matchups coming in the next two weeks (against the Lions and Seahawks). The sympathy vote is in play here, as well. At 37, the only thing Stafford hasn’t done in his Hall of Fame career is win the MVP award. This might very well be his last great shot.

Why he couldn’t: That loss to the Panthers was rough . It opened the door for Maye to surge into the lead in this race, and the New England quarterback has a strong candidacy. Those games against the Lions and the Seahawks also will be cage matches. Both teams rank in the top 10 in the league in sacks, and they’ll be eager to get after Stafford. Another game or two like he had in Carolina would hurt him immensely.

Final verdict: Stafford was running away with this award at one point, and for good reason. He was trending toward the type of season that makes it easy for voters to hand him the trophy. It feels like that won’t be forgotten if the Rams keep rolling. He has more weapons than Maye, and the old-guy narrative will matter in the end.

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