2025 NFL offensive rookies: Best and worst case for 28 players

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With the start of the 2025 NFL regular season within sight, I’m going position by position to unveil my projections for 28 of the most notable offensive rookies this year.

A few notes before we dive in, for context:

Only two rookie quarterbacks have thrown for more than 3,900 yards since the start of the 2016 season.

Thirteen rookie running backs have rushed for 1,000-plus yards since the start of the 2016 campaign, and only five have rushed for 10 or more TDs in that span.

Eleven rookie wide receivers have gained 1,000-plus receiving yards since the start of the 2016 season, and only five have posted 10 or more TDs in that span.

Only four rookie tight ends have recorded 700-plus receiving yards since the start of the 2016 season, and only five have logged more than five TD catches in that span.

And now, on to the projections.

Drafted: Round 1, No. 1 overall

Best-case scenario: The Titans’ offense surprises by playing to the top-10 potential Ward sees in the group. Dan Moore Jr.‘s addition at left tackle and JC Latham‘s move back to right tackle stabilize the offensive line on the edges, giving the team’s playmakers a chance to shine. Ward has matured when it comes to protecting the football.

Worst-case scenario: Tennessee’s investments in the O-line fail to provide immediate returns, and Ward pays the price. The draft’s top pick flashes but is unable to establish much consistency. Turnovers are an issue all season long.

Projected stats: 3,743 passing yards, 23 TDs, 13 INTs; 287 rushing yards, 3 TDs.

Drafted: Round 1, No. 25 overall

Best-case scenario: Dart proves to Brian Daboll that he gives the Giants the best chance to win and unseats Russell Wilson as the starter relatively early in the season. The offensive line exceeds expectations, while Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Cam Skattebo form a dynamic 1-2 punch in the ground game. Oh, and Malik Nabers continues to light the world on fire. Dart is put in manageable positions and he’s further along as a decision-maker than he showed at Ole Miss.

Worst-case scenario: The Giants’ offense looks a lot like it did in each of the last two seasons, when it ranked 30th and 31st in scoring. In a moment of desperation, the reins are handed to Dart before he’s fully ready for QB1 duty. He’s not up to the challenge behind a leaky O-line.

Projected stats: 2,389 passing yards, 14 TDs, 9 INTs; 253 rushing yards, 2 TDs.

Drafted: Round 2, No. 40 overall

Best-case scenario: Shough wins the starting job early in the season (if not in the final preseason game), showing strong command of the offense and decision-making that continues to improve. No. 9 overall pick Kelvin Banks Jr. performs to his ceiling at left tackle, Chris Olave stays healthy and Alvin Kamara plays at a high level, giving Shough enough of a supporting cast for the team to be competitive in the NFC South.

Worst-case scenario: If a handful of things break the wrong way for the Saints in Year 1 of the Kellen Moore era, it’s not hard to envision this team being the worst in the league. The injury problems that dogged Shough for much of his college career plague him again in the pros. He’s never able to establish a rhythm in his rookie year, spending much of it sitting behind Spencer Rattler.

Projected stats: 2,082 passing yards, 12 TDs, 8 INTs; 136 rushing yards, TD.

RUNNING BACK

Las Vegas Raiders

Drafted: Round 1, No. 6 overall

Best-case scenario: The rebuild in Vegas proves to be on the accelerated track Pete Carroll has hinted at, with Jeanty serving as the centerpiece of an offense that performs much better than expected. He routinely racks up 100-plus rushing yards, protects the ball well and never veers off course as the Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner.

Worst-case scenario: Offensive line troubles plague the team, and as good as he is, Jeanty struggles to overcome the scarcity of running lanes. Chunk gains are very hard to come by and the constant struggle to pick up the tough yards takes its toll on the rookie. The Raiders field one of the league’s worst offenses once again.

Projected stats: 293 carries for 1,306 yards, 10 TDs; 36 receptions for 284 yards, 2 TDs.

Los Angeles Chargers

Drafted: Round 1, No. 22 overall

Best-case scenario: The 6-foot, 220-pound bowling ball wins the starting job and never releases his hold on it, running with a punishing style that delights Jim Harbaugh. Hampton is trusted on third downs and in goal-line situations, too — aside from being spelled by a backup on occasion, he stays on the field.

Worst-case scenario: Hampton ends up in more of a timeshare, with Harbaugh sitting him for significant stretches. The rookie misses out on valuable scoring opportunities, and the Chargers’ reformed O-line never fully jells after the loss of left tackle Rashawn Slater, taking a big bite out of the offense.

Projected stats: 241 carries for 1,099 yards, 9 TDs; 39 receptions for 331 yards, 2 TDs.

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