2025 NFL playoff hunt: Buying and selling 18 potential Super Bowl contenders

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In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season, including:

But to kick things off, a look at the postseason viability of 18 playoff contenders entering the final two weeks of the regular season …

It’s almost closing time for the NFL regular season, as Week 16 is about to wrap up. There once again were a number of games that played a pivotal role in playoff seeding and a handful that ended with dramatic finishes. All this craziness tells you the postseason will be something special. This league has been wide open all year, and that parity is still resonating throughout most of what we witness each weekend.

This is why it’s also important to start defining which teams to believe in when it comes to making a run at a championship. The playoff scenarios will give you math and projections. This edition of The First Read will give you certainty — at least one man’s version of it. Here’s who you should be buying and selling when it comes to deciding who can win a Super Bowl at this stage of the season.

AFC CONTENDERS

12-3 · Current seed: No. 1

The Broncos have been rolling for so long that it’s weird to see their flaws do them in. It’s one thing for Denver to have its 11-game winning streak end on Sunday in a 34-20 loss to Jacksonville. The way it went down was the startling part. Denver’s superpower is its defense. That was a message that apparently never made it to Jacksonville’s ears. The Jaguars created explosive passing plays (wide receiver    Parker Washington    had six catches for 145 yards and a touchdown) and Jacksonville scored four touchdowns in five red-zone trips. All this brought up a question that has followed the Broncos all year: What happens when that defense has a bad day? It’s a fair concern, but this also feels like a one-off. The Broncos have rattled opposing teams for most of this season. Head coach Sean Payton also is asking more of quarterback    Bo Nix    because this is the third time in the last four weeks that Nix has thrown for at least 300 yards (he has four total 300-yard efforts on the season). It would be easy to say Sunday’s loss was an indication of how close the Broncos are to being a one-and-done team in the playoffs. But this isn’t a year where they have to worry about competing with a powerhouse in January. They’re good enough to win a Super Bowl with what they have.

12-3 · Current seed: No. 2

Week 15 was a tough one for the Patriots because they blew a 21-0 lead against Buffalo and ultimately lost a home game to their division rival. Week 16 was an indication of how fast this team has been growing up. New England trailed by 11 points in the fourth quarter against Baltimore on Sunday night. Instead of taking a second consecutive loss, the Patriots proved they could handle adversity when it strikes them and pulled out a 28-24 win. The one continual criticism that has been attached to this team is the notion that a soft schedule is largely responsible for its success. The Patriots may not have as many marquee victories as other teams fighting for playoff spots, but they have a lot of great qualities. Second-year quarterback      Drake Maye      is the biggest, given the MVP-caliber season he’s produced. Head coach Mike Vrabel also has shown why he’s so highly respected. This team is built on paying attention to details and playing with conviction, and you can see Vrabel’s players buy into what he’s selling. In a different year, you might wonder if New England has enough experience to make some noise in the postseason. That would suggest you haven’t watched this team enough. These Pats are as good as anybody who plans on playing in January.

11-4 · Current seed: No. 3

Any questions about the legitimacy of the Jaguars should’ve ended on Sunday with that win over Denver. You can be skeptical about them beating up on some lesser teams during their current six-game win streak (including the Jets, Cardinals and Titans), but a double-digit victory on the road against one of the league’s top defenses is a real statement. The thing that makes Jacksonville scary is the play of quarterback    Trevor Lawrence    . He’s finally looking like a No. 1 overall pick, as he’s tallied 19 total touchdowns during this run and thrown 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last four games. Lawrence also is benefiting from the pieces around him. Running back    Travis Etienne    has been solid, wide receiver    Jakobi Meyers    has been a huge trade deadline acquisition and a defense that was once knocked for being only good at forcing turnovers now ranks in the top 10 in points allowed. If Lawrence stays hot, this team could be a problem. The Broncos just learned as much.

9-6 · Current seed: No. 4

The Steelers have been one of the most perplexing teams in the league all season. They’re mediocre on offense. They’ve disappointed on defense. But here they once again find themselves in position to reach the postseason after a huge win in Detroit on Sunday. That victory was stunning largely because Pittsburgh, a team that entered the game ranked 28th in rushing, actually gained a season-high 230 yards on the ground against the Lions. It would be something if you could trust that Pittsburgh discovered something in that contest. Instead, it feels more like an indictment of how difficult the year has been for the Lions. The Steelers are good enough to be AFC North champs. Unfortunately for them, that isn’t saying a whole lot this season.

11-4 · Current seed: No. 5

This has been one of the most resilient teams in the league. Injuries have crippled the offensive line for months, but the Chargers are now 11-4 after Sunday’s win in Dallas and they’re still clinging to a shot at winning the AFC West title. There’s plenty of credit to go around to explain that success. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has kept his team focused despite the losses of star offensive tackles     Rashawn Slater     and     Joe Alt     . Quarterback     Justin Herbert     has displayed his own toughness, as he’s been playing with a fractured left hand over the past three games. The defense has been fierce and opportunistic — forcing eight turnovers in the last three contests — while it’s hard to find an NFL kicker more reliable than     Cameron Dicker     . Now comes the bad news: This team is too beaten up to believe a deep postseason run awaits it. There are too many good defenses that will appear in the AFC playoffs, and two of those — Houston and Denver — have the type of dynamic edge rushers who could make life hell for Herbert. The Chargers are improving. It’s just that timing isn’t working in their favor this year.

11-4 · Current seed: No. 6

The Bills have one of the best weapons in the league heading into the postseason in quarterback     Josh Allen     . He’s played some of the best football of his career in January — he’s thrown 25 touchdown passes and just four interceptions while also rushing for 668 yards and seven more scores in 13 playoff appearances — and he’s led his team to two of the last five AFC Championship Games. But Allen also isn’t a one-man show. Running back     James Cook     has blossomed into an elite talent, as he’s currently leading the league in rushing (ahead of Monday night’s Colts-49ers game, in which Jonathan Taylor could retake the lead) after producing 117 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday’s win over Cleveland. The key for the Bills is leaning heavily on that tandem in the postseason because defense is once again going to be a question for this team. Buffalo has been horrible at stopping the run all year and Cleveland gained 160 yards on the ground on Sunday. The Bills also have allowed 33.2 points per game in their last five playoff losses, which is why Allen’s brilliance has never gotten them over the hump. However, it does help that the quarterbacks who beat Buffalo in all those defeats — Kansas City’s     Patrick Mahomes     and Cincinnati’s     Joe Burrow     — will be watching these playoffs from home. That’s why this opportunity is so golden for Allen and his teammates. The road to the Super Bowl may never be less daunting again.

10-5 · Current seed: No. 7

Let’s be honest: A close win over the Raiders isn’t the kind of thing that fills a bandwagon. Houston boasts the best defense in football while the Raiders have been saddled with the league’s worst offense for months. So, how did this end up being a 23-21 Texans win? Crap sometimes happens. Maybe this was the day when the Raiders found some chemistry, as rookie running back   Ashton Jeanty   ran for 128 yards. It’s still not worth thinking that Las Vegas exposed something that other teams can copy in the postseason. The Texans have dynamic players at every level of that defense, and they’ve dominated throughout the year. That’s the sample size to trust here. Like with Denver and Seattle, Houston’s defense can take this team a long way — as long as quarterback   C.J. Stroud   can handle his business on offense.

8-6 · Current seed: No. 8

There was a time when the Colts were one of the best stories of the season. They were 8-2, sitting in great position to make a run at the top seed in the AFC and cornerback   Sauce Gardner   had just arrived in a blockbuster trade with the Jets to fortify the defense. So much for that. Indianapolis hasn’t won a game since its Week 11 bye and its fading postseason hopes are now riding on the possibility that 44-year-old quarterback   Philip Rivers   can pull off a miracle after returning to football following nearly five years in retirement. It’s worth wondering where the Colts might be if starting quarterback   Daniel Jones   hadn’t been lost to a torn Achilles or Gardner could’ve avoided a calf strain. It’s also important to note that the Colts were always going to end the season with a rough stretch. Even if they can stay alive with a win over San Francisco on Monday night, it’s hard to see them reaching the playoffs with victories over Jacksonville and Houston to end the year.

7-8 · Current seed: No. 9

It doesn’t look good for the Ravens. Their loss to New England on Sunday night left them two games behind the Steelers with two games left. To make matters worse, quarterback   Lamar Jackson   sustained another injury and couldn’t finish the game. Baltimore has spent this entire season trying to make up for major setbacks, the first being a shocking 1-5 start and the second being all the health issues that have hobbled Jackson. It’s time to admit this just wasn’t the Ravens’ year.

NFC CONTENDERS

12-3 · Current seed: No. 1

Seattle made a huge statement on Thursday night with a 38-37 overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams. In overcoming a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit, the Seahawks proved they had more than enough mental toughness to take the NFC West crown and send the road to the Super Bowl through their city. It also was evidence that quarterback   Sam Darnold   has a chance to avoid the postseason horrors that haunted him last season, when he melted down in a wild-card loss to the Rams after turning around his career with the Vikings. Darnold had some struggles on Thursday night — he threw two interceptions, including one midway through the fourth quarter that could’ve clinched the game for Los Angeles — but he made several clutch plays after that. His effectiveness is obviously critical to Seattle’s Super Bowl hopes, especially if the Seahawks’ defense continues to be the elite unit we’ve watched most of the year. Seattle excels at stopping the run, pressuring quarterbacks, forcing turnovers and limiting points. In other words, that defense is exactly the kind of unit that can carry a team to a championship.

11-4 · Current seed: No. 2

There has been so much magic involved in the Bears’ first season under head coach Ben Johnson that you have to wonder if they’ll use up all that good fortune before the playoffs even start. They have produced one of the most amazing stats in recent memory — by winning six games after trailing in the final two minutes of regulation — and they were at it again on Saturday night in beating Green Bay. The Packers controlled most of the action and led 16-6 with two minutes remaining. That’s when the Bears started doing their thing, which included an onside kick recovery, as well as   Caleb Williams   tying the game with a touchdown pass to undrafted rookie free agent   Jahdae Walker   and winning it with a 46-yard bomb to   DJ Moore   in overtime. We’ll say the quiet part out loud now: They can’t sustain this. The Bears do have their strengths, which include a strong run game and a defense that has been so opportunistic that Chicago leads the NFL in turnover differential. Those traits are enough to get the Bears by lesser teams. It’s hard to see that working against stronger opponents like the Seahawks or Rams.

10-5 · Current seed: No. 3

Let’s pump the brakes on the Eagles’ offensive resurgence for now. Yes, it’s been encouraging to see an underwhelming unit erupt for 60 points and 390 rushing yards in the last two games. The reality is those numbers came against the Raiders and Commanders, two of the worst teams in the league. We probably won’t even learn that much in the next couple weeks — Philadelphia will face another bad run defense in Buffalo in Week 17 before a rematch with Washington in the season finale — and that’s the problem. If there’s one thing that should have been learned by watching the Eagles already this season, it’s to not trust your eyes at any moment. There have been too many times when it’s worth believing that offense was finding its way, only to see more inconsistency emerge later. The question the Eagles need to answer is whether they can rely on the same formula that led them to a championship last year, which involved putting the offense on the shoulders of running back    Saquon Barkley    . He’s now had two 100-yard games in the last three weeks, so that’s a positive sign, especially with his O-line so banged up. The Eagles’ defense also has the potential to get hot at the right time because coordinator Vic Fangio can scheme with the best of them. But let’s be honest: Something has been off with this team for months. Maybe the Eagles can change that by flipping a switch, but it’s never wise to count on something like that. They broke the 21-year streak of teams not repeating as NFC East champs. Winning a second straight Super Bowl is a whole different type of challenge.

8-7 · Current seed: No. 4

It’s been a fun ride in Carolina, as the Panthers have turned into legitimate playoff contenders. Sunday’s win over Tampa Bay put them in position to claim their first NFC South title since 2015 and their first playoff appearance since 2017. The question the Panthers must answer in the next two weeks is whether they can finish. They host Seattle next weekend, but it’s more likely that a rematch against the Buccaneers in the season finale is when this division race will be decided. The Panthers certainly have looked like the better team lately. While the Buccaneers have lost three consecutive games — all to division foes — Carolina hasn’t lost two straight since the first two weeks of the season. The Panthers also have an improved defense and a quarterback in   Bryce Young   who has proven to be clutch in late-game situations. Of the 14 wins Young has in his career, 12 have involved game-winning drives. That’s a good sign for a team on the rise, but it’s also not time to believe the Panthers will be playing deep into January.

11-4 · Current seed: No. 5

Don’t ding the Rams too much for what happened on Thursday night in Seattle. That was a road game on a short week against a division rival that is a worthy Super Bowl contender. By the way, let’s not forget that Los Angeles was leading by 16 points midway through the fourth quarter. A lot of freaky things had to happen for L.A. to lose. It happens. The Rams still look like the most complete team in the league, and they will be dangerous whether they’re coming into the postseason as a division champion or a wild card. Quarterback    Matthew Stafford    has played at an MVP level for most of this season and threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks without wide receiver    Davante Adams    available. As long as the hamstring injury that has sidelined Adams doesn’t linger into the postseason, this offense is primed to do damage. The Rams can hit teams with wide receiver    Puka Nacua    (1,592 receiving yards), a dynamic backfield duo (    Kyren Williams    and    Blake Corum    ) and a variety of multiple-tight end sets. Oh, yeah — and their defense ranks in the top 10 in points allowed, while head coach Sean McVay already has been to two Super Bowls and won one.

10-4 · Current seed: No. 6

There’s so much to like about the 49ers because they really shouldn’t be this good. This team has lost a Pro Bowl edge rusher (   Nick Bosa   ) and a first-team All-Pro linebacker (   Fred Warner   ) to season-ending injuries while also playing long stretches without quarterback   Brock Purdy   and tight end   George Kittle   . And those are just some of the big names who have been banged up for this team. This is why head coach Kyle Shanahan should be a strong candidate for Coach of the Year. He kept this team winning when it had plenty of excuses to go into the fetal position. Sure, a soft, fourth-place schedule has helped San Francisco build a 10-4 record heading into a Monday night matchup with the Colts, but this also isn’t some upstart team hoping to build confidence against easy opposition. Shanahan has led the 49ers to two Super Bowls and four NFC title games. They have some pride around that place. Their problem is that winning in the postseason requires stars to play like stars. And they don’t have as many as they’d like.

Like San Francisco, Green Bay is dealing with some brutal luck when it comes to injuries. Their best pass catcher (tight end   Tucker Kraft   ) and best defender (edge rusher   Micah Parsons   ) have both been lost to season-ending ACL tears. Their hopes of challenging the Bears for the NFC North title — and even holding onto a wild-card spot — also took a hit with the concussion quarterback   Jordan Love   sustained in Saturday night’s loss to Chicago. This looked very much like a Super Bowl-caliber team a few weeks ago. Now it’s hard to know how dangerous the Packers can be in the postseason. That meltdown against the Bears didn’t help, either.

8-7 · Current seed: No. 8

The Lions gave a valiant effort in trying to come back and beat Pittsburgh in the final seconds of Sunday’s game before falling by a score of 29-24. That defeat also was emblematic of Detroit’s season. The Lions are currently 8-7 with five losses in their last eight games. The combined margin of victory in those defeats: 29 points. The Lions might still be alive mathematically, but all their hopes rely on Green Bay imploding. Even if that happens — and Jordan Love’s health concerns make that a possibility — this team isn’t going anywhere in January.

7-8 · Current seed: No. 10

There was time back in the first month of the season when the Buccaneers were truly defying gravity. They kept losing crucial players to injuries … yet still found ways to win, often in dramatic fashion at the end of games. The irony is that, lately, the more key players this team returns to the field, the worse it ends up looking. The Bucs have a number of stars back in the lineup — including running back   Bucky Irving   and wide receivers   Chris Godwin   and   Mike Evans   — and they’re currently mired in a three-game losing streak. One of those losses can be explained away to Carolina being a solid team. The other two — to the Saints and Falcons — indicate that the Bucs can’t be trusted if they end up winning the South.

THREE UP

There hasn’t been much to cheer about in Atlanta this season, but Robinson has been a major highlight. He now has 2,026 scrimmage yards after the Falcons’ win over Arizona — when he gained 76 rushing yards and 92 receiving yards — and he’s made a case as the best dual-threat running back in the league not named   Christian McCaffrey   . Someday, Atlanta is going to figure out its quarterback situation and turn that offense loose. Until then, Robinson won’t get nearly the spotlight he deserves.

The Chargers quarterback has been playing through pain for a few weeks with a fractured left hand. It didn’t cause him many problems in a win in Dallas. Herbert completed 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in that victory. He also ran for 42 yards and another score. It’s been a rough year for Herbert, who’s been sacked 49 times behind an injury-riddled offensive line. But he’s proved his toughness and his potential with the way he’s carried this offense.

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