Can Tua Tagovailoa win first below-freezing game Monday night in Pittsburgh?

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2025-12-13

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The Miami Dolphins have marched back into respectability, winning five of their past six games. Now, Tua Tagovailoa will attempt to do something he’s never done: Win in the cold.

The Hawaiian native has never won a game with temperatures at or below 40 degrees, going 0-5 in his career. The temperature in Pittsburgh on Monday night is currently forecast at 18 degrees, with wind gusts of 16 mph, per AccuWeather.

Tagovailoa brushed aside the weather talk.

“It’s football, bro,” Tagovailoa said Thursday, via the South Florida Sun Sentinel. “It is what it is. We got to play them in Pittsburgh, whether it’s negative-20, whether it’s 20 degrees. We got to play football.”

It’s already getting to that point in the calendar when 40 degrees would feel balmy to most living in cold-weather states. Sunday’s temps and wind chill will make it feel well below that in Pittsburgh.

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Wins and losses aren’t all on the QB, but the Dolphins’ record in cold-weather games with Tua under center is ugly. Via Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post, Tagovailoa is 0-5 when the temp is below 40; 1-6 when it’s 45 degrees or colder; 2-8 in 50 or below; and 4-13 under 55 degrees. The five games Tua has lost in sub-40-degree weather: at Buffalo, at Tennessee, at Buffalo, at Kansas City, at Green Bay.

In last week’s win over the Jets in New York, it was 41 degrees at kickoff, which gave Tagovailoa his first victory in sub-46-degree weather.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has already minimized the passing offense during their winning streak. Tagovailoa has thrown for fewer than 175 passing yards in four straight games (all wins), the longest stretch of his career. During the streak, Miami leads the NFL with 192.3 rush yards per game and 10.5 rush first downs. Given the conditions expected Monday night, expect more of the same from Miami.

Passing less doesn’t bother Tua. Only victories matter.

“I’m happy,” Tagovailoa said. “As long as we’re getting wins, that’s all that matters in this league. Now, would I like to throw the ball more? Sure. But if running the ball is what’s helping us win games right now, I don’t see why we stop doing it.”