Cynthia Frelund 2026 NFL mock draft 1.0: 49ers, Bills among five teams to pick WRs

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I always do my NFL mock drafts a little differently from the traditional method, in that my team-prospect pairings are based on optimizing for wins in the upcoming season only. Here’s a quick look at my process:

I take the best available information about free agency — which, right now, is admittedly not much more than what we know about player contracts — to predict players’ market value.

I then check free agents’ projected market value against the anticipated salary-cap space for each team.

Finally, I add potential free agents or drafted players to different teams and identify which individuals increase teams’ projected win total the most. (My player model leverages historical pre-draft player data to forecast NFL performance.)

I’m starting this process early again this year, which is extremely fun because I am excited to track how things change with free agency and as the draft process evolves.

One housekeeping item: I used computer vision-derived measurements and stats in my player evaluations, and all of my speed, burst and advance tracking notes are based on on-field game speed metrics.

NOTES:

Pick Nos. 31 and 32 will be determined by the outcome of Super Bowl LX.

NFL Network and NFL+ will have live coverage of the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine beginning Feb. 26.

I feel more confident Mendoza will go first overall than I do that he’ll be a Raider. It’s early in the evaluation process, but on the field, talent-wise, the distance between Mendoza and the next QB in this year’s class in my model was the biggest I’ve seen in at least the past eight seasons (since I have modeled in the way I do now). Given the amount of cap space AND needs that the Raiders have, the franchise might be better off trying to trade the pick for a huge haul. Given the market-resetting trade the Colts offered the Jets to acquire CB   Sauce Gardner   , can you imagine what might be possible for a 1.01 QB now? If a bounty like that is out there, it’s at least worth the Raiders’ consideration.

Like the Raiders, the Jets have a host of needs. In this mock, my model paired them with the defensive prospect who has burst and body-control metrics that put him in the 93rd percentile in an eight-season sample. As a quick strategy note here, though, the Jets have a ton of draft capital, including four picks in the top 50, so they have the potential to move around the board to target specific players, too.

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