By Julia Payne and Jan Strupczewski

U.S. and European Union flags and a “tariffs” label are seen in this illustration taken April 10, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights , opens new tab

BRUSSELS, July 25 (Reuters) – The European Union and the United States could reach a framework deal on trade this weekend, ending months of uncertainty for European industry, EU officials and diplomats said on Friday.

The deal would likely include a 15% baseline tariff on all EU goods entering the United States and probably a 50% tariff on European steel and aluminium, the officials and diplomats said.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said there was a 50-50 chance or perhaps less that the United States would reach a trade agreement with the European Union, adding that Brussels wanted to “make a deal very badly”.

One of the sources said a weekend deal seemed likely as the “agreement is basically in the hands of Trump now.”

A source familiar with the negotiations said there was a “good chance” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would meet Trump in Scotland over the weekend.

A spokesperson for the Commission did not respond to multiple requests for comment on a possible meeting.

Trump will visit his golf course on Scotland’s west coast and is set to meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday.

Combining goods, services and investment, the EU and the United States are each other’s largest trading partners by far. The American Chamber of Commerce to the EU warned in March that any conflict jeopardised $9.5 trillion of business in the world’s most important commercial relationship.

The EU is facing U.S. tariffs on more than 70% of its exports – 50% on steel and aluminium, 25% on cars and car parts and a 10% levy on most other EU goods, which U.S. President Donald Trump has said he would hike to 30% on August 1, a level EU officials said would wipe out whole chunks of transatlantic commerce.

Further tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals are looming.

The EU has prepared countermeasures that could enter into force on August 7 in the event that talks collapse.

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Jan is the Deputy Bureau Chief for France and Benelux, running the Reuters office in Brussels. He has been covering European Union policy, focusing on economics, since 2005 after a five year assignment in Stockholm where he covered tech and telecoms stocks, the central bank and general news. Jan joined Reuters in 1993 in Warsaw from the main Polish TV news programme “Wiadomosci”, where he was a reporter and anchor for the morning news edition. Jan won the Reuters Journalist of the Year award in 2007 in the Scoop of the Year category, a second time in 2010 for his coverage of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis and for the third time in 2011, this time as part of the Brussels team, for the Story of the Year. A Polish national, Jan graduated from Warsaw University with a Master’s in English literature. He is a keen sailor, photographer and bushcraft enthusiast.

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