Mike Florio ,
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The obvious question regarding the NBA’s Terry Rozier scandal is whether the NFL could have a similar situation, where a player participates in a game on a less-then-expected basis, where it is known before the game that the player would participate on a less-than-expected basis, and where that information is shared with others who then wager money on the “unders” for one or more of his prop bets.
The less obvious question is whether it has already happened.
The most obvious example occurred on October 22, 2023. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson woke up with a severe headache. The Falcons did not update their injury report. Robinson participated in only 11 snaps.
Two months later, the NFL fined the Falcons $75,000 and coach Arthur Smith $25,000 for failing to disclose Robinson’s illness. The other part was never addressed and, as far as anyone knows, never investigated.
Who knew that Robinson was ill?
Who knew that he would have only a limited workload?
And who, if anyone, did they tell?
It’s virtually impossible to police a situation like that. Anyone who knew could have told anyone they wanted that Robinson wouldn’t be playing as much as expected. And those people could have told anyone they wanted. And so on.
The over/under for Robinson’s rushing yards that day was 54.5 . The over/under for his receiving yards was 25.5. He had three rushing yards, and zero receiving yards.
Did the NFL explore the three questions listed above? If so, what did the NFL learn? And if the NFL had become aware of any irregularities, would the NFL have affirmatively acted on them — or would the NFL have buried the issue?
That’s not to suggest Robinson told anyone. Indeed, it wasn’t LeBron James but, allegedly, Damon Jones who shared inside information that James wouldn’t be playing in a February 2023 game against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Again, it’s virtually impossible to police the dissemination of inside information. And it would be very easy for anyone who knew that Robinson would be limited to let someone else know. Who could have then let someone else know. Who could have eventually told someone who would have realized there was easy money to be made.
Now that the Rozier scandal has become the biggest story in sports, those questions will be inescapable whenever a skill-position player plays less than expected. Or when the player leaves a game early with an injury that may or may not be real.
The first step seems to be the sportsbooks to flag suspicious betting activity on the “under” props. The next step will then be to either aggressively investigate — or to get out a broom.
Given the potential consequences of having something like this come to light, the strong temptation will be to get out the broom.
Big Shield combines gambling, pro football, and the mob into a cautionary tale regarding inside information, and the dangers that come from selling it.
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