Teams and the media usually monitor incoming quarterback classes at least a year out. Some players take college football by storm and are easy to project as potential first-round prospects. Those players don’t come around every year, though. Last year, there weren’t any sure-fire first-round prospects, let alone players seen as worth the No. 1 pick.
This year is better but how much better depends on who you ask. A non-exhaustive list of potential first-round quarterbacks includes:
Manning probably would have been a first-round pick this past year, even with just two career starts, because the potential he’s shown already is top-notch. The last name certainly doesn’t hurt. However, it’s far from a guarantee he plays well or even declares for the 2026 draft, as both his uncles stayed in school for multiple seasons.
Allar is the other player on this list who would have had a good shot to be selected in the first round had he declared this past year — though the fact he went back suggests his feedback was at least mixed. He checks a lot of the prototypical boxes for the NFL, including size, arm strength, mobility and experience at a big-time program. The actual tape has been more mixed, especially against top competition. Allar could cement himself as a top-five pick or end up sliding based on how this upcoming season plays out.
Sellers is an outstanding athlete and high-powered thrower who is still working to find consistency as a player, like Richardson in Indianapolis and Milroe the last couple of years at Alabama. His potential is sky-high if he puts it together and will intrigue teams regardless. But the failures of players like Richardson and former 49ers QB Trey Lance seem to have made some teams gun-shy about that particular archetype at the position. A second season of starting experience is important for Sellers, and if it goes well, he could also be a top-five pick.
Klubnik and Nussmeier have big-time program experience, and Klubnik could enter the NFL next year with over 40 starts. Nussmeier contemplated declaring this past year but elected to go back for a second year as a starter, as otherwise inexperience would have been held against him. How this coming season plays out will go a long way toward determining their draft stock but it’s worth noting both are closer to the game manager style of player than the high-level physical traits of Allar/Sellers. They’re not undersized but they’re also not imposing physical specimens.
Mendoza and Mateer fit the profile of relative unknowns who could rocket up the draft board with a stellar season. Mendoza is a big-bodied and big-armed passer who transferred from Cal to Indiana this offseason to help the Hoosiers try and sustain their Playoff success. Mateer landed at Oklahoma after compiling 44 total touchdowns, 15 on the ground, at Washington State in 2024.
There are enough players with potential to say that the 2026 class should be better than 2025, with Ward going No. 1 to the Titans and a lot of other “beauty is in the eye of the beholder” prospects. But all of these players remain projections who still have to put things together this upcoming season. Think of it as a hand of dice. The odds of getting a six with five dice are better than with three.
There’s still a chance of rolling five ones, though.