NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 13 of the 2025 season

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Entering Week 13 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team’s postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com’s Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like “If win,” “If lose” and “playoff leverage” click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 25 unless otherwise noted below.

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NFL playoff picture entering Week 13

AFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %

1. Patriots (10-2)  99% >99% 96% 34%

2. Broncos (9-2)  97% 99% 94% 40%

3. Colts (8-3)  86% 94% 73% 16%

4. Ravens (6-5)  69% 75% 55% <1%

5. Chargers (7-4)  58% 65% 37% 2%

6. Jaguars (7-4)  69% 78% 48% 4%

7. Bills (7-4)  88% 95% 77% 6%

Get ready for some wild swings within the AFC hierarchy, folks! Eight teams — the Texans (32%), Jaguars (29%), Chargers (28%), Chiefs (25%), Steelers (23%), Colts (21%), Ravens (19%) and Bills (18%) — have playoff leverages of at least 18 points this week. That’s twice as many as in the NFC. Still not enough stakes for you? Well consider that half of these AFC hopefuls are set to square off against each other on Sunday (Texans-Colts, Bills-Steelers).

Unlike the teams above, the 9-2 Broncos have a lot less to worry about this holiday weekend, in part because of what transpired in Week 12 while they were off the grid. As far as bye weeks go, the Broncos couldn’t have asked for a better break — or for more things to break their way. The Colts fell to Kansas City, dropping them to one game behind Denver in the conference standing, which is notable because Indy has the head-to-head tie-breaker in its pocket. The Bills and Steelers also both lost, essentially clearing out two potential challengers for the conference’s No. 1 seed (Buffalo figured to be more of a problem than Pittsburgh, but still). As a result, the probability that Denver will finish atop the AFC increased by 14 points from last week. Sure, Sean Payton would’ve preferred a Patriots loss, too, given that Mike Vrabel’s crew currently occupies the top spot — but New England is simply a placeholder at this point, at least until both teams have played the same number of games. With wins at Washington (3-8) and Las Vegas (2-9) over the next two weeks, Denver would reclaim first place entering the season’s final quarter, regardless of what New England (which will be taking its bye in Week 14) or any other team does in the meantime.

In fact, even if both the Broncos and the Pats were to win out and finish 15-2, Denver would clinch the No. 1 seed based on record against common opponents. … Who would’ve thought the Raiders’ win at Foxborough on opening weekend would potentially decide the fate of the conference’s lone playoff bye?

The Patriots’ place in the pecking order might be temporary, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be celebrated. Winning 10 games through 12 weeks, including nine in a row, is no small feat — even with the benefit of the league’s easiest schedule to date (.346). Minimize their turnaround all you want, but the Pats enter Week 13 with more than twice as many wins as they managed all of last season (4-13) and with the highest postseason probability of any AFC team (99%).

Like New England, Baltimore has also taken advantage of a soft middle section of its schedule, rolling up five straight wins to oust the Steelers from atop the AFC North. How the Ravens fare over three consecutive division contests — they face Cincinnati twice, with Round 1 being on Thanksgiving, and Pittsburgh — could solidify their division standing and nudge them up a slot in the conference …

… Over third-placed Indianapolis, which might come to rue the Chiefs’ 14-point rally when January arrives. The Colts’ eight total wins afford them a bit of breathing room, but their remaining schedule sure doesn’t; it’s the second hardest, behind Green Bay. With two games apiece against Houston and Jacksonville sandwiching matchups with Seattle and San Francisco, the Colts are set to face playoff contenders in each of their final six games. Brutal.

Unlike the Broncos’ week off, the Bolts’ bye was more of a mixed bag. L.A. moved up from No. 6 to No. 5 in the overall standings (good!), but its postseason probability dropped by 2 points (bad!). And the three teams that entered the weekend ahead of the Chargers — the Bills, Colts and Steelers — all lost (good!), but the four teams directly behind them — the Chiefs, Jaguars, Ravens and Texans — all won (bad!). L.A. will face the Raiders next (nice!), followed by back-to-back meetings with last year’s Super Bowl teams (yikes!). Seems fitting that the Chargers currently sit with about a 50-50 chance of qualifying for the tourney.

NFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %

1. Rams (9-2)  >99% >99% 97% 54%

2. Eagles (8-3)  99% >99% 97% 21%

3. Bears (8-3)  59% 76% 53% 3%

4. Buccaneers (6-5)  83% 89% 77% <1%

5. Seahawks (8-3)  91% 95% 78% 10%

6. Packers (7-3-1)  78% 92% 69% 3%

7. 49ers (8-4)  86% 93% 77% 3%

The first game of Week 13 — Packers at Lions on Thanksgiving — is also one of the most consequential, with the two NFC North teams combining for a conference-high 49 points in playoff leverage. Whoever wins would become a near lock for the tournament and could even vault to the top of the NFC North leaderboard by Friday evening, should the Bears fall to the Eagles. If the Packers were to lose, they’d drop out of the seven-team field entirely, though they could reappear as soon as Sunday afternoon if the Browns upset the Niners. And if the Lions were to lose, they’d remain on the outside looking in for another week — with a few more hurdles standing between them and a postseason slot. What a way to kick off the holiday, huh?

OK, that was a lot of scenario-speak. Let’s switch gears to something more concrete …

The Rams’ overall record and place in the NFC standings finally reflect what has been true for weeks now: L.A. is the class of the conference (and arguably the league). If not for a couple of untimely special teams debacles, Sean McVay’s squad might be undefeated. They’ve rattled off six in a row with a ridiculous 18.5-point average margin of victory. And it’s not like the dubs have come against a bunch of tomato cans: Neither the Bucs, 49ers nor the Jags — all currently in the playoff picture — stood a chance in their recent meetings with L.A., losing by a combined 71 points.

With a win in Carolina this weekend, McVay would capture yet another first in his illustrious coaching career: a perfect November. That might not seem like a significant milestone, but Rams fans will know that the month (for whatever reason) has dogged the Super Bowl champion since he first donned the headset in 2017 (.429 win percentage prior to this season). If only someone had seen a 5-0 November coming …

Although the Rams are now the overwhelming favorite to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed (54%), they still have a few tough tests ahead of them — like having to face the Lions and Seahawks over a five-day period in mid-December. And, of course, they still have to out-win the Eagles, who hold the head-to-head tie-breaker, thanks to one of the Rams’ kicking miscues (two, actually). …

Speaking of the Eagles … they flirted with disaster over the past couple of weeks, and on Sunday, calamity finally caught up with Nick Sirianni’s club. Although the loss at Dallas didn’t put a dent in Philly’s overall postseason probability, it did slash the team’s odds of capturing a playoff bye (from 41% to 21%). It also raised the stakes on an already massive matchup with the third-seeded Bears, who, at 59 percent, are still less likely than both Green Bay (No. 6, 78%) and Detroit (No. 8, 75%) to even secure a playoff berth. A Bears win at Philadelphia on Friday would go a long way toward quieting the chatter about the quality of competition Chicago has faced thus far.

Stop me if you’ve heard this NFC North tale before … Sharp offensive mind teams with maligned QB to execute an impressive single-season turnaround, going 6-1 in one-score games through Week 12 while battling with the Packers and Lions for division supremacy. Meanwhile, the group’s also-ran resides at 4-7 overall after suffering several late-game letdowns. Yep, the Bears and Vikings have essentially switched places. Chicago fans have to hope the fourth-quarter magic that Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams have discovered doesn’t suddenly disappear like it did for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold in Minnesota last year.

Seattle hasn’t locked anything up yet, but with a 91 percent probability, the ‘Hawks remain on track to clinch their first postseason berth since 2022. Week 16’s Thursday-nighter versus L.A. looms large on the horizon, with the outcome potentially influencing playoff seeding, home-field advantage and the NFC’s first-round bye. Seattle will, of course, have to keep pace with L.A. in the meantime for that matchup to be as meaningful then as it appears now.

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

8. Texans (6-5) 43% 64% 32%

9. Steelers (6-5) 38% 52% 29%

10. Chiefs (6-5) 52% 61% 35%

The Steelers’ loss to the Bears didn’t end up being as damaging to their playoff hopes as the model projected, with Pittsburgh’s postseason probability sitting at 38%, which, while still unsettling, is just 1 point lower than it was last Tuesday and 7 points higher than the model’s “If Lose” projection going into Week 12. The Steelers hit Thanksgiving Week as the least likely of the 10 legitimate AFC contenders to clinch a playoff berth. But those odds could change drastically if they can beat the Bills this weekend. Like Pittsburgh, Buffalo has similarly been all over the map since October (figuratively, not literally).

Kansas City still has plenty of work to do to get off the fringe and into the frame, but Sunday’s comeback over the Colts was a tremendous first step. The Chiefs’ next hurdle involves a trip to Dallas on Thanksgiving, followed by tilts against the Texans and Chargers — who are among the teams standing between K.C. and a wild-card berth — in back-to-back weeks. With prior losses to the sixth-seeded Jaguars and seventh-seeded Bills working against them, the Chiefs simply cannot afford any stumbles.

Chiefs fans will be doubling as Steelers supporters this weekend, which I realize might seem counterintuitive if you’re looking solely at the standings above. But Kansas City needs as many of the seven-win teams to lose as possible, and the Chargers (vs. Raiders) and Jaguars (at Titans) will likely be heavy favorites in their respective matchups.

Houston hopes to be part of that 7-5 club, too, after visiting Indy on Sunday. If the Texans can extend their win streak to four, they’re projected to see the biggest jump in playoff probability (21 points) of any team this week.

8. Lions (7-4) 75% 86% 60%

9. Panthers (6-6) 15% 25% 12%

I’ve already outlined what Detroit has riding on its battle with Green Bay on Thursday, so I won’t rehash all that again. But I did want to spotlight the absolute chaos that is the Lions’ postseason outlook: They are the only NFC team with at least a 5 percent playoff probability in five or more NFC playoff slots.

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