NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 14 of the 2025 season

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Entering Week 14 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team’s postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com’s Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like “If win,” “If lose” and “playoff leverage” click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 2 unless otherwise noted below.

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NFL playoff picture entering Week 14

AFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %

1. Patriots (11-2)  >99% BYE BYE 36%

2. Broncos (10-2)  99% >99% 96% 48%

3. Jaguars (8-4)  79% 95% 67% 4%

4. Ravens (6-6)  69% 84% 38% 0%

5. Chargers (8-4)  61% 76% 50% 2%

6. Colts (8-4)  72% 86% 55% 3%

7. Bills (8-4)  90% 96% 79% 6%

If you thought last week’s AFC slate was juicy, just look at the high-leverage affairs on tap this Sunday:

No. 9 Steelers (6-6) at No. 4 Ravens (6-6): 92 points of combined leverage

No. 8 Texans (7-5) at No. 10 Chiefs (6-6): 75 points

No. 3 Jaguars (8-4) at No. 6 Colts (8-4): 52 points

That Steelers-Ravens number is staggering — stakes we typically see closer to the end of the season. Although both teams would improve to 7-6 overall with a win, if the Ravens prevail, they’d be in position to lock up the division by Week 17 regardless of what Pittsburgh does, making their Week 18 rematch moot. However, even if Pittsburgh succeeds on Sunday and assumes the AFC North lead, the Ravens could still potentially overtake them in the season finale. This is why Baltimore’s “If Win” playoff probability shoots up to 84 percent, while Pittsburgh’s levels out at an uncomfortable 62 percent.

Whether you win by way of a failed two-point try or a 20-point margin, the W’s all count the same in the final tally. No team knows that better than the Broncos, whose nine-game run since the end of September includes a league-high seven victories by four points or fewer. While their winning margins have not always been substantial, their lead over the AFC’s bubble teams sure is, which is why Denver enters Week 14 with a 99 percent playoff probability.

Barring an epic disaster in Vegas this weekend (which, to be fair, can happen to the best of us), the Broncos will assume control of the No. 1 seed from the Pats (who have the week off) by Sunday evening.

The Bills’ dominant performance at Pittsburgh added a couple points to their postseason probability and stacked another H2H win over a bubble team to their growing pile. With victories over Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City — and potentially Cincinnati on Sunday — Buffalo has only Houston to fear, should tie-breakers come into play. …

… Speaking of the Texans (and their terrifying defense), they could make their playoff-picture debut with a win at Kansas City on Sunday. As it so happens, no AFC division has more at stake in Week 14 than the South, which could emerge from this weekend’s chaos with a new clubhouse leader and three members in postseason position. Lot of moving parts here, so bear with me. Assuming Colts-Jags doesn’t end in a tie, then:

If the Texans win at Kansas City on Sunday, they will end the week in possession of at least the seventh seed. If both the Chargers (at Eagles) and Bills (vs. Bengals) also win, then the loser of Colts-Jaguars exits the playoff picture entirely.

If the Texans win and either the Chargers or Bills lose, then Houston, Indy and Jacksonville would all be in possession of postseason slots entering Week 15.

If the Texans win and both the Chargers and Bills lose, then not only are all three AFC South teams in the picture, but Houston would jump up to the No. 5 seed, with the loser of Colts-Jags falling to No. 7.

Since its inaugural season 23 years ago, the AFC South has only sent three teams to the playoffs once before, in 2007.

L.A.’s Week 13 win over the Raiders came at a potentially season-altering cost, with Justin Herbert fracturing his non-throwing hand. The Bolts could really use some favorable news regarding their QB1’s upcoming availability, because they won’t find many positives in their remaining schedule. Sure, the season finale at Denver could end up being a winner-takes-all division bout, which would constitute something of a “positive,” but that scenario only comes into play if L.A. is within one game of the Broncos’ record when Week 18 arrives. And the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans figure to have different priorities when each takes on the Chargers over the next four weeks.

NFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %

1. Bears (9-3)  76% 93% 70% 10%

2. Rams (9-3) 96% 98% 89% 36%

3. Eagles (8-4)  95% 98% 89% 9%

4. Buccaneers (7-5) 84% 88% 74% 1%

5. Seahawks (9-3) 93% 97% 85% 22%

6. Packers (8-3-1)  89% 95% 75% 12%

7. 49ers (9-4) 90% BYE BYE 9%

On Monday, Oct. 13, Chicago earned a walk-off win at Washington — the site of last year’s season-derailing Hail Mary loss — to improve to 3-2 and 10th place in the NFC. Six wins, seven weeks and exactly 50 days later, the Bears sit alone atop the conference. For the first time since 2006 — and in the 40th-anniversary season of the franchise’s only Super Bowl-winning team — the calendar has flipped to December with Chicago in first place. Let’s take a minute to let that sink in. …

… OK, now for the negative: The Bears haven’t clinched anything yet. With five games to play and the fifth-hardest remaining slate, staying on top of the mountain might prove to be even harder than the climb up. As Ben Johnson said on Monday, the team will have to earn the right to play in the tournament. And while millions of Bears fans surely believe they will, the NGS model isn’t quite there yet. Three squads currently sport a higher probability than Chicago (10%) to finish as the No. 1 seed (Rams, 36%; Seahawks, 22%; Packers, 12%). In fact, the Bears still aren’t even the favorites to win the NFC North. As a Chicago kid, this just became personal with me. No free hot dogs for the Next Gen machine.

Much to the chagrin of Chicagoans, the Packers enter this weekend’s head-to-head heavyweight bout following a huge win of their own, having secured the season sweep of the Lions on Thanksgiving. Every Bears-Packers game is meaningful in its own way, but Sunday’s showdown has some particularly spicy stakes: If the Bears win at Lambeau, they become a near lock to clinch a postseason berth, bolstering their bid for the No. 1 seed and the NFC North title along the way; if the Packers win, they replace Chicago atop the division and , with losses by L.A. and Seattle, move to No. 1 in the conference, too.

… Speaking of No. 1 seeds being supplanted, Chicago’s ascent to the top of the NFC was only made possible by the Panthers’ stunning victory over the Rams on Sunday. Carolina has now pulled off the two biggest upsets of the 2025 season (along with Week 9 at Green Bay) and has a winning record (7-6), yet currently sits in 10th place with an 18% playoff probability. The NFC is nasty this year.

As for the team the Panthers beat on Sunday, well, the Rams remain the frontrunners for home-field advantage throughout, though their margin for error has dwindled. They still have to play Detroit and at Seattle over the next three weeks, with two rounds against Arizona also in the stretch-run mix. And don’t be too hasty to count those Cardinals tilts toward the Rams’ win total, as Jonathan Gannon’s group has played the Rams tough over their two most recent matchups, handing L.A. its most lopsided loss of the 2020s last year in the desert.

Despite dropping back-to-back conference games, the Eagles still boast the second-best playoff probability of any NFC team (95%) thanks to their sizable division lead. But there’s no way the reigning champs feel comfortable ceding two slots in as many weeks while the Cowboys claw their way back into contention.

After three consecutive wins, the 49ers hit the bye knowing their spot in the tournament will only improve during their break. San Francisco is guaranteed at least the No. 6 seed, regardless of how the week plays out. But their slot could get even better: Losses by the Seahawks (at Atlanta) and the Rams (at Arizona) would bump San Francisco up to the No. 2 seed. Like getting a promotion on your day off!

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

8. Texans (7-5) 63% 85% 49%

9. Steelers (6-6) 31% 62% 15%

10. Chiefs (6-6) 35% 49% 11%

Considering the deep hole the Chiefs have dug for themselves, they couldn’t have asked for a more favorable Week 14 slate with which to improve their playoff hopes. If Kansas City can handle business at home against red-hot Houston (7-5), the reigning AFC champs could hit Week 15 having made up serious ground in the postseason chase. All of the teams standing between them and a wild-card spot face stiff competition this weekend. Take a look:

No. 5 Chargers (8-4) vs. NFC No. 3 Eagles (8-4)

No. 6 Colts (8-4) at No. 3 Jaguars (8-4)

No. 7 Bills (8-4) vs. No. 12 Bengals (4-8 … but Joe Burrow)

No. 9 Steelers (6-6) at No. 4 Ravens (6-6)

However, the same goes for the Texans, who have battled their way back into both the wild-card and AFC South races after a disappointing 0-3 start to the season. Over the last six weeks, they’ve beaten four squads that currently appear in the 14-team playoff field. Even if they were to lose at Kansas City on Sunday night, they still have matchups against the Chargers and Colts to come, which affords them some say in their final landing spot in the AFC standings.

The Steelers remain stuck on the bubble after their demoralizing loss to Buffalo at home. But they can’t dwell on Sunday’s miscues and missed chances (or growing fan discontent) for long — not with another golden opportunity awaiting them this weekend in Baltimore. With a win, Pittsburgh ends its two-week absence from the playoff picture, returning to the No. 4 seed. With a loss, the Steelers’ postseason probability sinks to a crushing 15%.

8. Lions (7-5) 43% 58% 23%

10. Panthers (7-6) 18% BYE BYE

The Cowboys have taken three straight — including back-to-back games against last season’s Super Bowl contenders — to nearly triple their playoff probability from two weeks ago. But they’ll need a fair amount of help to get over the large hurdles still standing in their way. Thursday night’s prime-time affair at Detroit will serve as the Cowboys’ last matchup with a team ahead of them in the standings, which means they’ll have limited control over their future during the fourth quarter of the campaign. There’s a flip side to that coin, though: Three of their final four opponents (Vikings, Commanders and Giants) have already been eliminated or are on the verge of elimination.

The Lions entered Ford Field last Thursday with a 75 percent playoff probability. They could leave their home turf this Thursday at 23 percent. In case you’re not a numbers person, Dan Campbell’s crew is officially in must-win territory.

Although the Panthers’ road to the postseason almost certainly goes through the NFC South (more on that below), the model did project them as a wild-card team in 183 of 10,000 simulations.

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