NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 15 of the 2025 season

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Entering Week 15 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team’s postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com’s Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like “If win,” “If lose” and “playoff leverage” click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 9 unless otherwise noted below.

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NFL playoff picture entering Week 15

AFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %

1. Broncos (11-2)  >99% 100% >99% 42%

2. Patriots (11-2)  >99% 100% >99% 39%

3. Jaguars (9-4)  97% 99% 91% 10%

4. Steelers (7-6)  66% 74% 56% 0%

5. Chargers (9-4)  76% 93% 66% 3%

6. Bills (9-4)  96% 99% 92% 6%

7. Texans (8-5)  87% 92% 75% 1%

If you’re still clinging to doubts about Denver’s legitimacy, attributing their 10-game win streak and No. 1 overall standing to the quality of their competition (or lack thereof), the next four weeks could either make your case or lay waste to your receipts. Over the final quarter of the campaign, the Broncos will host three playoff contenders (Packers, Jaguars, Chargers) and play at Kansas City — a rigorous stretch that ranks as the third toughest in the league (.644). If they can survive that gauntlet and maintain possession of the 1 seed, critics will need to redirect their complaints elsewhere …

… like maybe toward the Patriots, whose path to 11 wins has similarly come under scrutiny. New England has faced the league’s easiest schedule to date, and — after hosting the Bills on Sunday — won’t see another regular-season opponent that’s currently above .500 (at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins). It’s possible New England could win 15 games without beating more than one team that finishes the year with a winning record. At the end of the day, though, if all those wins amount to a first-round bye — who cares?

Both Denver and New England can punch their playoff tickets this weekend by notching win No. 12. Although the Bills aren’t quite there yet, the NGS model’s 99% “If Win” probability for Buffalo (at Foxborough on Sunday afternoon) suggests they’re on the cusp.

As hot as the Broncos and Pats have been, the Houston Texans might be the conference’s most dangerous team right now. Of the six squads that have faced a strength of schedule of .570 or better through Week 14, only Houston has a winning record. Amazingly, the Texans have won more games during their current streak (five) than any of those other five teams (Raiders, Bengals, Titans, Cardinals and Giants) has even totaled thus far. And so, after operating on the margins for the past three months, the Texans have kicked down the door to the AFC playoff picture, with loftier postseason seeding in sight. Their seemingly relentless schedule finally lets up over the next two weeks, with home games against the Cardinals and Raiders, making a run for one of the top four slots a real possibility.

I’m sure the folks in Duval don’t care for me waxing on about the seventh-seeded Texans while their Jaguars sit at No. 3 in the standings. I mean no disrespect. In fact, I’d be foolish to overlook a team that holds a 97 percent playoff probability and remains in the hunt for the No. 1 seed. That’s right, two four-win teams from a year ago (Pats and Jags) are among the three most likely candidates to clinch the AFC’s playoff bye this season. If the Jags beat the three-win Jets this weekend, while both the Patriots (vs. Bills) and Broncos (vs. Packers) lose, then Jacksonville could be competing for first place when they meet the Broncos at Mile High in Week 16.

The Chargers’ gutsy overtime win on Monday night not only strengthened their position in the conference playoff picture from last week (up 15 points, to 76%), but it further crushed the Chiefs’ fleeting hopes of sneaking into the tournament. L.A.’s biggest threat now — aside from all of their injuries — is Indianapolis, who holds the head-to-head tiebreaker in its pocket. But with the Colts dealing with their own injury woes on top of a grueling end-of-season schedule, the Chargers are in prime position to secure their second playoff berth in as many years.

NFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %

1. Rams (10-3)  98% 100% 95% 45%

2. Packers (9-3-1)  94% 99% 89% 12%

3. Eagles (8-5)  92% 95% 80% 1%

4. Buccaneers (7-6)  71% 80% 54% 0%

5. Seahawks (10-3)  98% 99% 93% 32%

6. 49ers (9-4) 90% 93% 76% 7%

7. Bears (9-4)  65% 72% 47% 3%

And just like that, L.A. once against looks like the best team in the NFL. Matthew Stafford and friends absolutely walloped the Cardinals on Sunday, vaulting — with help from the Bears’ loss — back to the top of the NFC pecking order. Although the Rams have effectively put Week 13’s meltdown at Carolina in the rearview, that L could still come back to haunt them. With five other teams remaining in the hunt for the conference’s lone playoff bye, and two — Seattle and San Francisco — also challenging L.A. for the NFC West title, the Rams have such a small margin for error. A single slip-up over the next four weeks could signal the end of their reign over the NFC and even their run in the top half of the playoff picture. …

… But not their presence in the seven-team field. L.A. can lock that up by taking down Detroit this weekend.

As much as the Seahawks would surely welcome an assist in knocking the Rams off their perch(es), say, from the Lions in L.A. this Sunday, Seattle actually doesn’t need any help to make a run at the No. 1 seed or the NFC West. That’s because these two teams are still scheduled to square off in Week 16. So Seattle’s hopes rest in a simple formula: four wins over four weeks = home-field advantage throughout.

Bears-Packers Round 1 was as thrilling as advertised — and as consequential. The outcome contributed to changes at four different NFC playoff slots:

No. 1: Rams (previously Bears)

No. 2: Packers (Rams)

No. 6: 49ers (Packers)

No. 7: Bears (49ers)

After nearly a month of staying afloat in the wild-card portion of the playoff field, the Packers have returned to the upper echelons of the conference table. Now begins the battle to stay there. The new NFC North leaders are tied with Detroit for the seventh-hardest Q4 in the league, and, as a result, have the widest range in potential playoff positioning of any NFC contender. They’re the only team in the conference with double-digit probabilities in at least four different seeds, owning roughly the same odds to finish first (12%) and seventh (14%). Three of their final four tilts are on the road (Denver, Chicago, Minnesota), with their lone home game, in Week 17, coming against a Ravens squad that could still be desperate to stay in the thick of its own contentious division competition. So the Packers still have some work to do. …

… That said, no NFL team has earned more playoff berths this millennium than the Green Bay Packers, who have punched their ticket in 18 of the previous 24 seasons. At 94 percent probability entering the week, they’re on track to make it 19 of 25. …

… but not necessarily by way of an NFC North title. The Bears, despite Sunday’s loss at Lambeau, have put themselves in position to determine their playoff future. Sweeping their final four games still guarantees them both a division title and at least the conference’s No. 2 seed. And though their Week 16 rematch with Green Bay looms large, that game could be substantially less meaningful if the Bears don’t first handle their business with the Browns on Sunday. A loss to Cleveland would drop Chicago’s playoff probability to under 50 percent.

Week 14 was pretty good to the 49ers: They enjoyed a well-earned break and moved up to the sixth seed. And with games against Tennessee and the suddenly vulnerable Colts on deck, San Francisco might not be done climbing the NFC ladder.

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

8. Colts (8-5) 32% 58% 27%

9. Ravens (6-7) 33% 45% 16%

10. Chiefs (6-7) 10% 16% <1%

Despite several wasted opportunities between them, both the Ravens and Chiefs still have paths into the tournament. Baltimore’s route remains almost exclusively through the AFC North, where the Ravens sit behind the Steelers, with one head-to-head match still to play (in Week 18).

Kansas City, on the other hand, can only qualify for the postseason as a wild card. All three AFC slots are technically still open to them, but the Chiefs have already lost to the three current wild-card holders (Chargers, Bills and Texans). And though K.C. can still even the season series with L.A. (9-4) when the two face off on Sunday, that divisional matchup no longer provides the same boost to the Chiefs’ potential comeback bid as it would have had the Chargers dropped to 8-5 on Monday night. So while the Eagles recorded the L in Week 14’s finale, the Chiefs were the real losers.

If you look at the Chargers’ grueling remaining slate — at Dallas, vs. Houston, at Denver — the idea of a loss at Arrowhead sending the Bolts spiraling isn’t completely farfetched (just mostly). Even so, the Chiefs would still have to worry about …

… The Colts, who currently sit comfortably above Kansas City in the conference hierarchy. Then again, if you think L.A. will have it bad down the stretch, the Colts, who appear to be turning to Philip Rivers as a potential replacement for Daniel Jones, will have it even worse; Indy is saddled with the league’s hardest remaining SOS (.692). Plus, the Chiefs own the H2H tie-breaker, should they need it.

8. Lions (8-5) 50% 72% 40%

10. Panthers (7-6) 29% 38% 18%

The Lions were looking at a lost season had they fallen to Dallas last Thursday night. Instead, Detroit is one Bears false step away from potentially rejoining the playoff picture. At a minimum, the Lions’ goal must be to stay within at least one game of Chicago leading into their Week 18 matchup. In that scenario, the Lions wouldn’t just clinch the season series with the Bears by beating them in the finale — they’d also likely clinch at least a wild-card slot. …

… That is, unless either the Panthers or the Bucs are also still contending for one of those seeds. Although both are still theoretically in the running for a wild-card berth, the probability of multiple NFC South teams earning a spot is extremely low. For one, they’re both already behind the eight-ball, record-wise (7-6). And two, because they’ll face each other twice, it’s highly unlikely both squads are able to reach the 10-win mark, which is already a generous floor in terms of viability in this year’s NFC wild-card race. In other words, it will likely be division championship or bust for these two squads.

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