NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 16 of the 2025 season

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Entering Week 16 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team’s postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com’s Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like “If win,” “If lose” and “playoff leverage” click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 16 unless otherwise noted below.

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NFL playoff picture entering Week 16

AFC Playoff Picture Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %

1. Broncos (12-2)  100% — — 69%

2. Patriots (11-3)  >99% 100% >99% 11%

3. Jaguars (10-4)  96% >99% 93% 9%

4. Steelers (8-6)  62% 76% 55% 0%

5. Chargers (10-4)  92% 98% 87% 5%

6. Bills (10-4)  >99% >99% 98% 6%

7. Texans (9-5)  94% 97% 82% <1%

8. Colts (8-6) 19% 36% 10% 0%

9. Ravens (7-7) 39% 47% 26% 0%

Seemingly everything broke in the Broncos’ favor in Week 15. Before Denver’s game even kicked off, the Chiefs were officially eliminated from playoff contention, while the Patriots picked up loss No. 3. And by the time their bout with Green Bay wrapped up, the Broncos had moved one full game clear of New England atop the AFC leaderboard while becoming the first team in the conference to clinch a postseason berth. They can now lock up both the AFC West and the No. 1 seed this week:

Broncos clinch AFC West: Win vs. Jaguars + Chargers loss at Cowboys.

Broncos clinch No. 1 seed: Win vs. Jaguars + Chargers loss at Cowboys + Bills loss at Browns + Patriots loss at Ravens.

And if all that wasn’t enough, the Broncos might finally have convinced their detractors to quit griping about their strength of schedule (the second-easiest to date).

Want to know what won’t silence your skeptics? Becoming the “1” in “104-1.” Prior to Sunday’s collapse to Buffalo, the Patriots hadn’t lost a home game in which they led by 21 or more points in 47 years (including playoffs). Fortunately for the Pats, they still have a “1” next to their name in the AFC East standings and are “1” win away from securing a spot in this year’s tournament. But they’ve still only beaten one team that’s currently above .500 this season … and that lone victory, over the Bills, occurred in early October. Taking down the Ravens — who might not have a winning record, but sure looked like contenders again after blanking the Bengals — would help bolster the Patriots’ championship bonafides … even if it doesn’t end up ultimately affecting their division credentials (more on that in the AFC East breakdown below).

Similar to New England, Buffalo (at Browns), Jacksonville (at Broncos) and L.A. (at Cowboys) all have reasonable clinching scenarios this weekend. However, all three must win and have either the Texans or Colts lose to cement their spots. Considering Houston is hosting the 2-12 Raiders on Sunday, these three near locks will likely be rooting for the 49ers in Indianapolis on Monday night.

… Speaking of Indy, Philip Rivers and friends came this close to capturing their fairytale ending in Seattle. Alas, Seahawks kicker Jason Myers had his own historic finish in mind. But the story of the 2025 Colts hasn’t been written just yet — at least not in ink. Because the Colts will still meet both the Jaguars and Texans before the season wraps, they maintain a surprising amount of influence over the final AFC playoff picture. Although it’s possible for them to punch their ticket as a 10-7 team, their most probable paths require them to hit 11 wins. So Indy needs to do its part and get some help. But given the level of competition that contenders like L.A. and Jacksonville will face down the stretch, there’s still space for the Colts to craft an epic conclusion.

The Jaguars, of course, have no interest in aiding their rivals. They’ve got their own playoff scenarios to worry about. As meaningful as it’d be for Jacksonville to clinch in Week 16 — especially considering where this franchise was just 12 months ago — a postseason berth seems like the tip of the iceberg for a squad that still has the No. 1 seed within its sights (9%). By beating the Broncos on Sunday, the Jags would move within one game of the top spot, meaning one Denver slip-up — at Kansas City in Week 17 or against the Chargers in the season finale — would open the door for a potential Jaguars takeover. Of course, Jacksonville would likely have to win its final two games, too (at Colts, vs. Titans), as well as hope New England doesn’t amass 14 wins. But if these three AFC contenders all finish 13-4 — you can include the Bills and Chargers here, too, actually — the Jaguars would secure the conference’s top seed.

Any combination of 13-win teams that includes L.A. but doesn’t include the Jaguars would then favor the Bolts’ bid for the playoff bye. The Chargers would have to win out in that scenario, including against Houston in Week 17 — thus boosting Indy — and they’d need some help, perhaps in the form of a Rivers-led Colts win over Jacksonville that same weekend. So while the Jags might not be keen to help Indy, the Bolts might — especially if the Colts return the favor.

Entering Week 16, all four of the AFC division leaders were different from last year’s champions. If that holds, it would mark the first time we’ve seen complete turnover at the top of each group since the 2002-03 seasons. (H/T NFL Senior Researcher Dante Koplowitz-Fleming for that gem.)

Eliminated AFC Teams

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)

11. Miami Dolphins (6-8)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)

13. New York Jets (3-11)

14. Cleveland Browns (3-11)

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

16. Tennessee Titans (2-12)

NFC Playoff Picture Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %

1. Rams (11-3)  100% — — 51%

2. Bears (10-4)  71% 92% 53% 3%

3. Eagles (9-5)  >99% 100% 97% <1%

4. Buccaneers (7-7)  77% 94% 55% 0%

5. Seahawks (11-3)  >99% 100% 99% 31%

6. 49ers (10-4)  98% 100% 94% 14%

7. Packers (9-4-1) 87% 99% 75% <1%

8. Lions (8-6) 44% 55% 19% 0%

9. Panthers (7-7) 23% 45% 6% 0%

10. Cowboys (6-7-1) <1% 2% 0% 0%

Not to short-change Jaguars-Broncos or Patriots-Ravens, which both have meaningful playoff implications, but Week 16 is all about the NFC lineup. We’ve got Rams-Seahawks on Thursday night, Packers-Bears on Saturday night and then Buccaneers-Panthers in the early Sunday window. And with the sixth-seeded 49ers facing the Colts on Monday night, we could see changes at Nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7 by next Tuesday.

About the only thing not up for grabs this weekend is the No. 3 seed, which the Eagles appear likely to hold onto the rest of the way (78%). In fact, Philly can clinch the NFC East with a win at Washington on Saturday or a Cowboys loss to the Chargers on Sunday.

How about a few more straightforward clinching scenarios:

Seahawks clinch berth with: Win vs. Rams OR Lions loss vs. Steelers

49ers clinch berth with: Win at Colts OR Lions loss vs. Steelers

Bears clinch berth with: Win vs. Packers + Lions loss vs. Steelers

Packers clinch berth with: Win at Bears + Lions loss vs. Steelers

You can probably gather by all the Detroit mentions in the scenarios above that Dan Campbell’s crew could really use a win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. Another loss is projected to completely sink their playoff odds (19%).

As for the only NFC team that’s already secured its spot … The Rams’ grueling 2025 schedule finally lets up after their showdown in Seattle, with games against the Falcons and Cardinals rounding out L.A.’s regular season. So if Sean McVay’s squad sweeps the season series with the Seahawks, they’re well-positioned to maintain their spot atop the NFC West and NFC overall. Along the same the lines, though, should they lose Thursday night, their remaining slate is significantly softer than Seattle’s (at Panthers, at 49ers), meaning the Rams could still find their way back to No. 1 in both the division and the conference after Week 18. …

… but they’d also have to fend off the 49ers. If L.A. loses to Seattle, then both the ‘Hawks and the 49ers would have control over the conference race, with either team able to clinch the No. 1 seed by winning out — which includes their head-to-head matchup in Week 18. But one game at a time, right? So in the short term, a Niners win on Monday would move them up to No. 5 in the pecking order (barring a tie in Rams-Seahawks).

The Bears (3%), Packers (.59%) and Eagles (.37%) could also theoretically secure the NFC’s playoff bye, but they all need varying degrees of help. Of this cohort, Chicago’s path is the easiest to follow. The Bears would need to win out — including at San Francisco in Week 17 — and have Seattle beat the Rams on TNF but then lose at least one of its final two games.

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