NFL Pro fantasy football preview: Week 11 insights

Matt Okada

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Ten weeks in the books, seven more to go! We’re on to Week 11 … and it’s packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher them, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.

Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.

Thanks in large part to the sixth-highest blitz rate in the NFL this season (34.2%), the Buccaneers rank second in pressure rate (40.5%), behind only the Broncos. However, they’re ranked 25th in NFL Pro’s pass defense efficiency with pressure, surrendering the sixth-highest passer rating and the fifth-highest completion rate with pressure on the season. Drake Maye just tagged them for 167 yards, one TD, a 105.4 passer rating and a whopping 12.8 yards per attempt under pressure in the 28-23 Patriots win on Sunday.

Enter Josh Allen, whose +5.6 completion percentage over expectation and 36.8% success rate under pressure are both top seven among qualified quarterbacks. But more importantly, his 12.6% scramble rate against pressure ranks second highest, behind only Jayden Daniels. Allen leads the NFL with 232 total scramble yards under pressure — 130 passing and 102 rushing — and is among the most successful quarterbacks on the move and outside the pocket in the league. Allen tends to avoid pressure in general, but when it comes, he becomes that much more dangerous, which is why the Bills rank fourth in NFL Pro’s passing offense efficiency against pressure. The Bucs might get to him often, but it might be to their detriment if Allen continues his playmaking ways in Week 11.

Fantasy Fallout: Josh Allen is one of the easiest starts in fantasy, so you don’t need my advice on that front. It is also worth noting that Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid will likely get a boost if Allen turns to the quick game to avoid Tampa Bay’s blitzes, so both are slightly more startable in Week 11.

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To say that Cincinnati’s defense has struggled against the run might be a bit of an understatement. They’re 31st in NFL Pro’s rushing defense efficiency and are bottom two in the metric against designed runs, rushing under center, rushing both inside and outside the tackles, and rushing against light boxes. They’ve allowed 141.1 rushing yards per game to running backs (most in the league by more than 20 YPG), as well as 5.5 yards per carry, 30 runs of 10+ yards and 13 scrimmage touchdowns (more than every team except the Titans).

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