NFL Pro fantasy football preview: Week 12 insights

Matt Okada

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Eleven weeks in the books, six more to go! We’re on to Week 12 … and it’s packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher them, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.

Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.

While the Chiefs pass defense has been largely solid this season — ninth in NFL Pro’s overall passing defense efficiency — they are dead last in the metric defending against the play-action pass. Kansas City has surrendered an NFL-high 0.41 EPA/dropback, 63.5% success rate and 81.2% completion rate on play action (with a +7.6 completion percentage over expected), as well as 11.0 yards per attempt (second-most). They’ve only allowed one touchdown on play-action passes, but that’s largely due to a lack of volume faced (69 attempts, sixth-fewest).

Enter the Indianapolis Colts, who have used play action at the second-highest rate in the league. The only team running play action more than Indy is the Rams, and Shane Steichen’s unit has recorded a 57.1% success rate (fifth-highest) on those dropbacks. Daniel Jones leads the entire NFL with 1,017 play-action passing yards, and no one else outside of Matthew Stafford has eclipsed 1,000. This makes a lot of sense in the context of Jonathan Taylor‘s dominance and the fear he strikes into defenses — if Steve Spagnuolo’s defense sells out to stop the All-Pro back, Jones and the passing game could thrive on Sunday.

Fantasy Fallout: Kansas City’s defense is generally strong, so this one weakness may not be enough to make Daniel Jones a must-start fantasy play this week. Still, it gives him and the Colts an avenue for success, and makes Jones and his pass-catchers a little more viable than the “red matchup” in your fantasy app might indicate.

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The Eagles offense has been … confusing and inconsistent in 2025. They seem to go on small multi-game spurts of good and bad, and they’re currently coming off back-to-back “bads.” Jalen Hurts has totaled just 318 passing yards and one touchdown throw since the Week 9 bye, and Philly scored just 26 points combined in those two games. However, the cure to all offensive woes, they say, is the Cowboys defense. (Or at least the Cowboys defense before Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, whose debuts against the Raiders on Monday night looked impressive.) On the year, Dallas is NFL Pro’s 28th-ranked overall passing defense, and they’re specifically dead last against deep passes. The Cowboys have allowed 699 yards and nine touchdowns on deep balls this year — no other team has surrendered more than 600 yards or six TDs.

Meanwhile, despite the inconsistencies, the Eagles passing offense ranks third in NFL Pro efficiency on the deep pass. Hurts leads the NFL with 685 passing yards on deep balls and has a 128.6 passer rating on those throws (third among qualified QBs), with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. We are getting quite literally the most productive deep passer in the game against the softest deep-pass defense in the game. That bodes well for a Philadelphia bounce-back, for Hurts’ passing totals and for both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who form the entirety of the Eagles’ downfield air assault. It’s also unlikely that the Eagles will be able to win with fewer than 20 points — as they have the last two weeks — against Dallas, so we can also expect higher passing volume and a bit more scoring in this contest.

Fantasy Fallout: Start your Eagles and start them with confidence. Hurts, Brown and Smith should all be high-end fantasy plays in what should be an explosive matchup this weekend.

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