NFL Pro fantasy football preview: Week 14 insights

Matt Okada

Copied!

Thirteen weeks in the books, four more to go in the fantasy season! We’re on to Week 14, and it’s full of exciting storylines! To better understand and decipher these storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.

Here are four of the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro context and the fantasy fallout we can expect!

On the year, Dak Prescott air yards per attempt of 7.8 is quite average, as is his deep throw rate of 10.3%. But when the Cowboys QB does throw deep, his completion rate over expected of +10.2% ranks fourth in the league and his EPA/dropback of 0.63 ranks fifth. And thanks to the overall volume of the Cowboys passing attack, only Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts have more deep passing yards than Prescott’s 696 in 2025. Unsurprisingly, his elite duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have thrived downfield as well: Lamb’s 325 yards on deep targets is second-most in the NFL behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Pickens’ 227 yards is eighth-most.

Enter the Detroit defense, which has allowed the second-most deep passing yards in the league (behind only the Cowboys themselves). No team has drawn more deep attempts than the Lions, only the Giants have allowed more deep completions and Detroit’s 0.70 EPA/dropback surrendered on deep throws is the sixth-highest on the season. In a game with an extremely high projected point total, in a dome, between these two offenses, you can expect fireworks from the opening kickoff. And given the propensity of Prescott’s passing and Detroit’s defense, those fireworks will likely come deep down the field early and often.

Fantasy Fallout: At this point, Prescott, Lamb and Pickens are all must-start fantasy assets in typical leagues, but this is a reminder of just how good they can be in this matchup. If you’re playing against them, you may need to build your lineup for upside. And if you’re assembling a DFS lineup, consider this crew as your core.

Related Links

It’s been quite the resurgence for Chase Brown, who started the year averaging 33.7 rushing yards and just 9.7 fantasy points per game through the first six weeks. Since Week 7 — more or less the post-Jake Browning era — Brown has instead averaged 83.7 rushing yards and 18.1 fantasy points per game (making him the RB7 over that span). He’s topped 100+ scrimmage yards in all six games over that span, and in his only truly soft matchup all year (against the Jets in Week 8), he scored two touchdowns and finished with 25.5 fantasy points. Also, sneakily, Samaje Perine has logged 154 scrimmage yards and a TD on 26 touches in his last two healthy games (Weeks 8 and 13), despite missing a month in between with an ankle injury.

Now, the Cincy duo draws a matchup with a disaster of a Bills run defense. Buffalo has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (113.3) and the most rushing touchdowns (15) to running backs all season. While they managed to hold Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell to modest performance on Sunday, it was just a few weeks ago that they surrendered consecutive 30-burgers to De’Von Achane and Sean Tucker. Back in Week 6, they gave up 35.8 fantasy points to Bijan Robinson while also allowing Tyler Allgeier to score 10.8. They are currently NFL Pro’s third-worst defense in defensive efficiency against designed runs and fifth-worst in overall rushing efficiency. Only the Giants are allowing more rushing yards per carry and no team is allowing more yards after contact per carry than Buffalo at 4.2 — nearly as high as the league average for total yards per carry (4.35).

Fantasy Fallout: Brown isn’t just an RB1 this week, he’s a contender for the RB1 overall with a very strong chance to score his first touchdown (or two) since Week 8. But if you’re feeling frisky (or looking for a cheap DFS option), Perine is also a sleeper play with a shot at double-digit touches.

Read More