NFL Pro fantasy football preview: Week 4 insights
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Three weeks in the books, 15 more to go! We’re on to Week 4 … and it’s packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Minnesota to rely on the quick game across the pond
In Carson Wentz‘s first start for Minnesota last week with J.J. McCarthy sidelined, the veteran QB threw a quick pass (under 2.5 seconds) on 60% of his pass attempts, tied for the seventh-highest rate by any QB in any game this season. This was a major departure from McCarthy’s tendencies in Weeks 1 and 2, as he had attempted quick passes on just 17.1% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league. On those quick throws, Wentz completed nine of 12 attempts for 101 yards and two touchdowns, for a whopping 1.0 fantasy points per attempt. Moreover, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson were productive on those passes, with Jefferson catching three balls for 45 yards on five such targets and Hockenson snagging four of four for 36 yards and a touchdown.
Now, the Vikings travel to Dublin to take on the Steelers at Croke Park in Dublin. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 8.2 yards per attempt and a 64.3% success rate on quick passes this season, both of which are the highest marks in the league. The 2.11 fantasy points per target they’ve surrendered on quick throws is also the most in the NFL, and they’ve allowed eight-plus fantasy points purely on quick throws to multiple tight ends and multiple wide receivers through three games. In what could be a defensive battle early on Sunday morning, this might be the one area to exploit for fantasy.
Fantasy Fallout: You’re not necessarily throwing Carson Wentz into your starting lineup, but with the bevy of injuries at the position, he’s not a bad streaming option, either. More importantly, there is some upside for Jefferson, Hockenson and possibly the returning Jordan Addison, if Minnesota game plans to target Pittsburgh’s weakness.
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Colts run-funnel defense could mean big things for Williams
After three weeks, the Colts rank fourth in NFL Pro’s defensive passing efficiency and sixth-lowest in defensive rushing efficiency. While allowing just 5.8 passing yards per pass attempt (fifth-fewest) and a -4.2% completion rate over expected (seventh-lowest), they’ve also surrendered 13-plus fantasy points to all three of their opponents’ lead running backs. Perhaps most importantly, Indy ranks 26th in defensive efficiency against rushes outside the tackles — where the Rams offense is the most efficient in the entire NFL. On outside runs, the Colts have allowed 4.4 yards after contact per attempt (fourth) and an explosive run on 18.2% of attempts (sixth), while the Los Angeles offense ranks second and fifth in those two metrics. Rams running back Kyren Williams has a 47.6% success rate (third among qualified rushers) and has forced nine missed tackles (eighth) on outside runs.
So far this year, Williams has been consistent, if not explosive, for fantasy. He’s hit double-digit fantasy points in all three weeks, but had fewer than 15 in two of three and has not yet hit 20 points in a game. That puts him right in the heart of RB2 range, but is not quite what we’d hoped for when drafting him in the third round. Fortunately, the Rams are also favored to win, at home, with a high implied total: all good signs for a bell-cow running back. While the Indy secondary focuses on stopping Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Williams could have his best fantasy day of the young season.
Fantasy Fallout: Williams is a must-start running back in season-long fantasy, but this is a reminder to raise expectations and potentially work him into daily or weekly contests. Also, Stafford and Adams become slightly fringier plays against this defense — Nacua is the best wideout in the game right now, so no worries there. (And don’t discount Nacua as an outside-the-tackles rusher either).