NFL Pro Super Bowl LX preview: 5 critical insights on Seahawks-Patriots matchup

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Five months, 284 games, tens of thousands of plays … and the path to Super Bowl LX has been paved. On February 8th, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will meet on the NFL’s biggest stage (again), this time at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. And as always, to better understand and decipher the storylines of the game, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most on the field.

Since there’s only one game left — and since it’s jam-packed with intriguing matchups — we’ll be casting a wider net this week. Here are five crucial insights that could end up deciding Super Bowl LX.

Over the last 10 weeks of football, the Patriots defense has allowed an explosive play on just 9.6% of snaps and the Seahawks defense is nearly as good at just 10.0% … good for first and second in the entire league over that span. In the playoffs, New England is down to an absurd 4.8% (with a bit of help from the Denver weather), while Seattle climbed to 16.1% after allowing a season-high 15 explosive plays to the Rams in the NFC Championship.

Meanwhile, the Patriots offense ranks fourth in explosive play rate on the year (15.2%), while the Seahawks rank eighth (14.4%). They are NFL Pro’s number one and number three offenses, respectively, in deep passing efficiency, and they’ve each had exactly 19 rushes of 20+ yards this year, tied for second in the league, including the postseason.

But how do these highly efficient offenses find explosive plays against such smothering defenses? Ultimately, it might come down to the players.

Seattle has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was unstoppable in the NFC Championship and whose explosive play per route rate of 9.1%, including playoffs, led all wide receivers with 100+ routes this year. They also have Kenneth Walker III, who looked fresh and effective in the NFC Championship and sports a 14.9% explosive run rate, including the playoffs, second-highest by any player with 150+ carries. Limiting those two will be extremely difficult but extremely critical for New England.

On the flip side, the Patriots rely on a veritable village. They’ve had six players record at least 10 explosive receptions this year, including playoffs, most of any team. But they don’t have a single player with 25+ explosive receptions — something more than half the league can claim. And, incredibly, Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Drake Maye all have exactly 19 explosive runs this year, including the playoffs — the only such trio in the league — but they’re one of just nine teams to have zero players crack 20 explosive runs.

The group that wins the big play battle — Seattle’s studs against Vrabel’s boys or New England’s motley crew against “The Dark Side” — could very well determine who lifts the Lombardi.

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