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The fantasy playoffs may be over (in most leagues at least) but the insights don’t stop here! Congratulations if you won it all, condolences if you came up short, now we turn to the race for the NFL playoffs! As always, to better understand and decipher the storylines of Week 18, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each contest.
This week, we’re breaking down crucial matchups from each of the three most critical games in determining the playoff picture — the Buccaneers and Panthers fighting for the NFC South, the 49ers and Seahawks battling for the NFC West and No. 1 seed and the Ravens and Steelers closing the season with the AFC North title game. Here are the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro context and the fallout we can expect on Saturday and Sunday!
By a wild fluke of standings and tiebreakers, this game is no longer guaranteed to be “for the division” … if the Panthers win, they take the NFC South title, but the Buccaneers need a win and a Falcons loss (on Sunday against the Saints) to clinch the division themselves. Still, this is a huge game for both teams in their pursuit of the playoffs.
And if the Buccaneers want to secure their chance at the postseason, there’s an interesting NFL Pro wrinkle to note in the Carolina defense. Currently, the Panthers are number one in NFL Pro’s defensive efficiency against deep passes, but they are 27th on short passes and dead last on quick passes. Over the second half of the season, they have allowed three touchdown passes, logged seven interceptions and surrendered a 58.3 passer rating on downfield passes (10+ air yards), while allowing five TDs (with just one INT) and a 99.0 passer rating on short passes and the highest EPA/dropback (0.43) and success rate (63.4%) in the league on quick passes (fewer than 2.5 seconds). Their success rate allowed on quick passes over that span is nearly three times their success rate allowed on extended dropbacks (21.2%).
As for Baker Mayfield, he has also been far more effective on quick passes this year — with 11 touchdowns, just one interception and a 102.5 passer rating, compared to four TDs, four INTs and a 56.7 passer rating on extended dropbacks. Incredibly, Mayfield has also not thrown a deep touchdown in 10 straight games, after throwing seven over his first six games during Emeka Egbuka‘s hot start to the year. Quite simply, if the Bucs want to stay alive in the division hunt heading into Sunday, they will likely need to pepper the Panthers with quick-hitters and yards after the catch in the passing game — a decent prospect if implemented, considering they lead the league in yards after catch over expected (498).
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While Christian McCaffrey has been incredible this season, racking up 2,069 yards and 17 touchdowns on 399 total touches, his efficiency as a rusher had been relatively lackluster … up until the last two weeks. From Weeks 1-16, McCaffrey averaged just 3.6 yards per carry with a rushing long of 20 yards, an explosive run rate of 8.1% and a top speed of 15+ miles per hour on just 11.6% of his carries. Then, in Weeks 16 and 17, McCaffrey broke off rushes of 24 and 41 yards, boosted his explosive run rate to 13.6%, hit 15+ mph on 27.3% of his rushes and ended up averaging 5.8 yards per carry. His 140 rushing yards in Week 17 against Chicago and 117 rushing yards in Week 16 against Indy were his highest and third-highest marks on the season. And while the Bears rush defense is less than stout, the Colts currently rank third in overall defensive rushing efficiency according to NFL Pro, making CMC’s Monday night feat that much more impressive.
However, not even the Colts have been as stingy against the run as the Seahawks. Their defense ranks first in NFL Pro’s overall rushing efficiency, and specifically first on rushes outside the tackles and rushes under center — while San Francisco runs outside the tackles at the 11th-highest rate and under center at the fifth-highest rate (74.2% of rushes). In fact, Seattle is top 10 in every defensive rushing metric NFL Pro measures, outside of quarterback scrambles. They’ve allowed the fewest yards per carry (3.72) and the third-fewest rush yards per game (94.4) all season and have not surrendered a 100-yard game to a single running back in 2025.
These two teams met in the first game of the year and the Seahawks bottled McCaffrey up as a rusher, holding him to 69 yards on 22 carries (3.1 per carry) … though he scorched them as a receiver with nine catches for 73 yards. If CMC’s end of year surge as a rusher is enough to overcome the strong Seattle front, San Francisco will have an excellent shot at the “upset,” the NFC West title and the number one seed. If not, he may need to have another one-of-one CMC receiving day to elevate the Niners offense to a win.