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In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season, including:
But to kick things off, the six biggest statements from Week 11 that will impact the playoff field …
There comes a point in every NFL season when a stretch of games gives us greater clarity on where everything is heading. That time is what Week 11 was all about. We came into this weekend knowing there were some blockbuster games on the schedule. Most of those contests did what they were supposed to do, as far as providing some sense of which teams were ready to separate from the rest of the pack.
If this were a golf tournament, we’d call it “Moving Day,” since that is the time when some golfers put themselves in position to capture the purse and others are left to wonder about what could’ve been. Since we’re talking about the NFL, we’ll refer to what we just witnessed as “Statement Sunday” in this latest version of The First Read. Yes, we realize there’s a lot of football left to be played. We also know that most of what we saw on Sunday will have a real impact on divisional races and playoff seeding.
1) Rams are NFL’s best team
There was plenty of hype surrounding Sunday’s matchup between Seattle and Los Angeles, and for good reasons. These were two of the most balanced teams in the league and had the same 7-2 records coming into the contest. The Rams wound up winning, 21-19, but their dominance for stretches suggested opponents are going to have a hard time vanquishing them once the postseason arrives. The defense forced Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold into his worst game of the year, as he threw four interceptions. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford didn’t post the gaudy numbers that have become commonplace for him in recent weeks — he only threw for 130 yards on 15-for-28 passing with two touchdowns — but he played efficiently enough to get the job done. This also is precisely what makes the Rams so scary. They have the No. 6 scoring offense and the No. 2 scoring defense. They can beat you with Stafford going off (he’s thrown 27 touchdown passes and only two interceptions this season) or running back Kyren Williams heating up or that nasty front seven wrecking a game. The Lions don’t have all those assets. The Eagles are still trying to figure out how to make their offense work consistently at a high level. Seattle might be the second-best team in the conference as of this writing, but it just took that L on Sunday. It’s also easy to forget that the Rams came really close to beating the Eagles in Philadelphia in last season’s Divisional Round. This time around, it’s not crazy to think that the Rams could be playing those meaningful games at home. That’s how good they look today.
2) AFC West now belongs to Broncos
It’s been almost a decade since Denver won a regular-season game as significant as its 22-19 win over Kansas City. The Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West championships. Their path to a 10th title almost certainly ended inside Empower Field on Sunday, as the Broncos answered every major question about their chances of contending for a championship. All the criticism of second-year quarterback Bo Nix and that beleaguered offense? Nix actually outplayed Patrick Mahomes, led the Broncos on the game-winning drive that ended with a Wil Lutz field goal and engineered an offense that outgained the Chiefs (342 yards to 311). The hurdles that Denver’s dominant defense faced with All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II sidelined with a pec injury? The Broncos sacked Mahomes three times and limited his two best wide receivers — Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy — to nine receptions for 63 yards (although tight end Travis Kelce finished with nine catches for 91 yards and a touchdown). The Broncos even slayed some old special teams demons. They lost in Kansas City last season when the Chiefs blocked a last-second field goal. This time around, Lutz attempted a game-winning kick from the same spot (35 yards out) and nailed it for the win. The Broncos now have five fourth-quarter comebacks and a two-game lead in the division, after losing 17 of the previous 19 games against Kansas City. There’s been a lot of talk about the Chiefs getting hot in the second half and running down the Broncos in ways that might have happened a few years ago. What Sunday’s effort proved is that it’s a new day in the AFC West. If the Chiefs want to get back to the Super Bowl — and they wouldn’t qualify for the postseason if it started today — they’re probably going to have to do it without the benefit of a home game for the first time in the Mahomes-Andy Reid era.
3) Eagles have stolen a page from 2024 Chiefs
Remember all the cynicism around Kansas City last season? The popular belief was that the 2024 Chiefs weren’t as good as their record suggested because they were surviving one-score games at a record pace and failing to dominate in ways that had become their trademark. It sure feels like the Eagles are doing the same thing one year after winning the Super Bowl. They just won a 16-9 game over the Lions on Sunday night that was emblematic of most of their wins this year. The offense sputtered along. The defense delivered some big plays. Yeah, wide receiver A.J. Brown caught more passes, but there really wasn’t much else that stood out. But here’s the important thing about Philadelphia that connects it to last year’s group in Kansas City: These Eagles keep finding ways to beat good teams. They have beaten the Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers, Packers and Lions so far this season. Philadelphia also has prevailed by one score in seven of its eight wins (and the Chiefs were 11-0 last year in that category). Now, is there a point where some of the Eagles’ issues might catch up to them? Possibly. The Chiefs returned to a third straight Super Bowl last year, only to be blown out by Philadelphia. It’s fair to think the Eagles aren’t winning two or three playoff games this season without more consistent production from stars like Brown and running back Saquon Barkley. It’s also a safe bet that they’ll keep winning most of these games. No matter how it looks, the Eagles are 24-3 in their last 27 games. You don’t win that often without understanding some important lessons about what it takes to avoid losses in this league.
4) Bears deserve more respect than they’re getting
Chicago seems to operate in the shadows of the NFC, which is bizarre given how bad this team has been in previous years. Its 19-17 win over the Vikings just improved its record to 7-3 — which is two more wins than it had all last year — and it’s holding first place in the NFC North after Detroit’s loss to Philadelphia. That sounds like pretty good progress for a team with a first-year head coach. The problem is that Ben Johnson was hired to turn second-year quarterback Caleb Williams into a superstar and that process is taking some time. But the focus on Chicago’s offense shouldn’t detract from the progress Johnson has made in developing a winning culture. Williams only completed 16 of 32 passes for 193 yards on Sunday. He also didn’t commit a turnover, which has been a major factor in Chicago’s success. Williams has only four interceptions this season and zero lost fumbles. Those numbers mean even more when considering the Bears have forced 22 turnovers and lead the league in turnover margin (+16). You want to know why the Bears are 5-1 in one-score games? It’s because of numbers like those. But they’re not creating the same buzz because the Eagles are the defending NFC champs, the Lions have been the dominant team in the NFC North, the Packers are underwhelming and the Rams and Seahawks have enjoyed more success. Things might be different if that offense takes off and all those young weapons start making some noise. Until then, we should have greater appreciation for what the Bears are doing. They may not be as fun to watch as other teams, but their resilience can’t be questioned.
5) Bills will go as far as their offense takes them
Buffalo earned the rebound win it needed after last weekend’s upset loss to Miami. The Bills beat Tampa Bay by a score of 44-32, and the major takeaway should’ve been all those points on both sides. It’s pretty obvious that Bills head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich don’t have an easy fix for this team’s inability to stop the run. The Bucs ran for 202 yards against them one week after the Dolphins gained 197 on the ground. What Tampa Bay couldn’t do was contain quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills offense. Even on a day when Buffalo’s top-ranked rushing attack only managed 97 yards, the Bills still scored at will, with Allen accounting for six touchdowns. This marks the third time this season that Buffalo has scored at least 40 points and the sixth time it has reached at least 30. Those types of offensive explosions will be necessary moving forward because the Bills won’t always have the luxury of controlling the game through the run. Being more aggressive on offense gives them a better chance of dictating the pace of the game. Creating larger leads limits the opportunities for other teams to run the ball continually. As much as critics harp on the perceived lack of weapons surrounding Allen, he has enough to generate points at a rapid-fire clip. That approach might lead to more turnovers because he will have to take more chances with the football (and he did throw two interceptions against Tampa Bay). But that’s also the position the Bills now find themselves in.
6) Jags aren’t going to fade away quietly
It would’ve been easy to start writing off Jacksonville after the Jaguars blew a 19-point fourth-quarter lead in a 36-29 loss to Houston last week. Instead, it’s time to wonder if it’s in prime position to make a run at a playoff spot after a 35-6 beatdown of the Chargers. The Jaguars were dealing with an assortment of injuries, and they still had no problems dominating Los Angeles and harassing Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. They also put themselves in position to remind people of what they can be when things are right. This team started 4-1, then dropped three of its next four games before Sunday’s win over the Chargers. They’ve lost the second overall pick in this year’s draft (wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter) to a season-ending injury, watched a rising star from last year mightily disappoint (second-year wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.) and waited patiently for Trevor Lawrence to take the next step in becoming a consistently effective franchise quarterback. It was basically time to wonder if all those early positive vibes were just a setup for another disappointing season in Jacksonville. Now things look very different. Over the next four games, the Jaguars will face the Cardinals, Titans, Colts and Jets. They will likely be favored in every one of those contests aside from the one against Indianapolis. That means this is Jacksonville’s chance to put in some serious work. The Jaguars are currently 6-4. It’s realistic to project them at 9-5 if they capitalize on those winnable games. They still have a lot to do — and the defense had been struggling before Sunday’s win — but the opportunity is definitely there for them.
THREE UP
The Bills quarterback didn’t start fast in a 44-32 win over Tampa Bay — he threw two interceptions in the first half, including one that came on a crazy decision to try a two-hand shovel pass from his own goal line — but he sure finished strong. Allen ended the game with 317 passing yards, 40 rushing yards and six total touchdowns. There have only been three times in league history when a player has produced three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a game. Allen is responsible for two of those efforts (Otto Graham authored the other).
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