Michael David Smith ,
Facebook
With the Packers trailing 3-0 in the fourth quarter on Monday night, they faced a fourth-and-11 at the Eagles’ 40-yard line. The analytics said to try a 58-yard field goal . Matt LaFleur decided to punt. That decision came back to haunt him.
The punt went for a touchback, so it netted only 20 yards of field position. And the Eagles marched down the field and scored a touchdown on the next drive, to take a 10-0 lead. The Packers would later score a touchdown of their own to make it 10-7, but they lost by that score when they missed a 64-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
Ultimately, LaFleur turned down a chance at a 58-yard field goal to punt, then had to try a 64-yard field goal at the end of the game. We’ll never know if Brandon McManus would have made that 58-yarder, but he’s made longer kicks than that before (his career-long is 61 yards), and in today’s NFL, 58 yards is well within field goal range: NFL kickers are 18-for-29 (62 percent) on field goals between 57 and 59 yards this season.
LaFleur was surely worried that if the Packers had missed the 58-yard field goal the Eagles would have capitalized on their good field position, but the Eagles scored a touchdown on the drive after the punt anyway. A miss wouldn’t have been any worse than the punt was, and a make would have given the Packers three more points in a game they lost by three.
Punting is rarely the correct decision when losing in the fourth quarter. The analytics actually said going for it on fourth-and-11, while not as good a choice as attempting a field goal, would have been a better choice than punting. If you’re losing in the fourth quarter you need to score, not give the ball to the other team.
LaFleur gave the ball to the Eagles, and the ultimate result was sending his kicker onto the field to try a 64-yard field goal. He would have been better off trying a 58-yard field goal when he had the chance.
Big Shield combines gambling, pro football, and the mob into a cautionary tale regarding inside information, and the dangers that come from selling it.
Football is back and so are Mike Florio and Chris Simms! Watch PFT Live for the latest news coming out of the regular season, postseason and offseason every Monday to Friday at 7 a.m. ET on Peacock and the NBC Sports NOW channel.
