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Defensive backs are the toughest position to evaluate when it comes to covering receivers. They are tasked with sticking to their coverage assignment on every snap and are often unfairly judged by their mistakes. Their purpose — and the height of their effectiveness — is to prevent quarterbacks from ever looking their way.
That’s where NFL Next Gen Stats and AWS step in with a new set of metrics: Coverage Responsibility, a family of models that better quantifies coverage roles and performance. We’ve used this framework to construct a midseason cornerback ranking, identifying which players are truly taking receivers out of the game on a snap-by-snap basis. Built with AWS, the model family reveals three things on every pass concept: the targeted receiver, which players were matched up and each defender’s assignment. This is the most effective method to date in terms of measuring the quiet wins that never show up in the box score.
The shutdown cornerback score is a composite of a player’s production and efficiency in coverage. It accounts for a player’s performance through the first eight weeks of the 2025 season, as well as a slightly lower-weighted evaluation of their work since the start of the 2024 campaign. The score is a weighted average of several advanced metrics derived from our new Coverage Responsibility model. We prioritized a low target rate, as the true shutdown cornerbacks dissuade passers from ever throwing their way. A cornerback’s effectiveness when targeted is illustrated with various metrics, such as yards per target and more advanced approaches like expected points allowed, and the frequency in which he makes plays on the ball. We also considered how often cornerbacks face opposing No. 1 receivers, based on the receiver’s target total in 2025 or since 2024. We finally incorporated proprietary metrics derived from the new model, including a cornerback’s ability to create tight windows in man coverage (under 1 yard of separation) and total amount of time forcing tight coverage.
In 2024, Surtain became the third cornerback this century to be named Defensive Player of the Year, and Next Gen Stats metrics backed up his otherworldly performance. He never allowed more than 44 yards in a game last season despite facing a slate of stars that included Ja’Marr Chase, DK Metcalf , Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson , on 20+ routes each.
Surtain continued that tremendous play in 2025 up until the pectoral injury he sustained in Week 9, which makes his availability week to week. Prior to that injury, Surtain had not surrendered a touchdown in coverage or allowed a single reception beyond 12 air yards. His greatest impact might be his ability to repel targets from coming to his area of the field. Since the start of last season, he has faced just a 10.4% target rate, sixth-lowest among 116 corners with 300+ coverage snaps, despite matching up with No. 1 receivers on a league-high 261 routes in that span. On the rare occasion the ball does come his way, he makes life difficult on pass catchers. This season, Surtain has forced a tight window on 51.5% of targets, second in the league (min. 20 targets), and has made a play on the ball nine times (26.5%), the third-highest rate. Unfortunately, it appears the Broncos and their fifth-ranked defense might have to navigate life without the NFL’s best cornerback for a while.
