This is the seventh year I’ve been covering the NFL, and usually by this point in the calendar on the eve of the season I have some hot takes bubbling up — gut feelings sparked by months of following the news cycle, offseason movement and training camp reports.
Having a platform like this means I can pull receipts when I’m right (a career resurgence for Sam Darnold , Bill Belichick getting fired ). However, it’s also a double-edged sword, keeping a record of when I went out on a limb and crashed (the 2023 Panthers winning the division, among other flops).
But this year, for whatever reason, the takes don’t feel quite as hot. There are a few things I feel strongly about, and we’ll dig into those momentarily, but overall there’s a sense of lukewarm when it comes to evaluating the pre-2025 consensus. I don’t think the NFL world of fans and analysts is that far off the mark when projecting the upcoming season, for the most part.
So here’s a list of six predictions, some bolder than others, some made with more confidence than others, as we get ready for the season to kick off tomorrow night.
The Commanders take a step back
The Commanders went from the No. 2 pick in the draft to the No. 2 team in the NFC last year thanks to an overhaul of all of their most important leadership positions — owner, general manager, head coach and quarterback — that supercharged their 2024 season. The brightest star of the bunch is QB Jayden Daniels , who scored 31 total touchdowns, ran for nearly 900 yards and generally did not play like a rookie en route to a 12-5 season. He seems like the real deal and reason to believe the long-term future in Washington is bright.
But Daniels could be better and the Commanders could still end up worse in 2025 than in 2024 because there’s so many elements of last year that will be hard to repeat. The 2024 Commanders caught lightning in a bottle. They had great health across the board. It seemed like every position group either lived up to or dramatically exceeded expectations, even ones the team was concerned about like the offensive line. A lot of credit belongs to OC Kliff Kingsbury who might have had one of the best coaching efforts of his career, however it’s worth noting even Kingsbury was regarded as an unknown going into last year after how his time with the Cardinals fizzled out. He has to prove he can stay ahead of the curve with more teams gunning for him now.
Washington also got just plain lucky in some ways. The Commanders were 8-2 in one-score games, including the famous Hail Mary win against the Bears, and historically those tend to play out much closer to 50-50 over time. Washington went an incredible 20 for 23 on fourth down attempts (87 percent), and that’s another area in which some regression feels inevitable.
While the team invested a lot in getting better this offseason, swinging trades for LT Laremy Tunsil and WR Deebo Samuel and adding veterans like DE Von Miller and DT Javon Kinlaw , it still feels like there are part of the roster that are lagging behind where expectations are. For instance, if the team is going to dethrone the Eagles in the NFC East and as Super Bowl contenders, a pass rush spearheaded by a 36-year-old Miller and DE Dorance Armstrong does not seem like it has enough firepower. The Commanders also have one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. Beyond Miller, they’re relying on 35-year-old LB Bobby Wagner and a 31-year-old Tunsil. Samuel and CB Marshon Lattimore aren’t over 30 yet but at 29, they’re approaching the historical age cliffs for their positions.
There’s also just the simple fact that the Commanders aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year. They’ve gone from three prime-time games to at least five with the potential for more with flex scheduling. Add it all up, and this Commanders team faces significant headwinds in 2025. I think it’s more likely the team takes a step back as opposed to toppling the Eagles in the division, and it’s not out of the question that the Commanders could end up missing the playoffs.
Giants QB Jaxson Dart plays sooner than you think
This prediction has become less and less bold with each passing week, especially now that it seems like Dart has jumped veteran QB Jameis Winston for the No. 2 backup job behind starting QB Russell Wilson . Dart began training camp as the clear No. 3 behind the two veterans, and the initial messaging from the Giants was that they were committed to giving Dart a redshirt year behind Wilson if necessary.
But after a strong preseason, it’s clear the team thinks Dart is ready to assume the reins if Wilson goes down to injury. And if HC Brian Daboll is that confident in Dart now, there is a much higher chance that he’s ready to turn things over to the guy New York traded up in the first round to draft after Daboll championed his case. First-round quarterbacks tend to play sooner rather than later, especially when there’s pressure on the head coach like there is for Daboll right now.
Giants owner John Mara issued a stay of execution for Daboll after last season, but it seemed more about Mara not wanting to have a quick hook with another coach or practicing what he’s been preaching to other owners about racking up fired coaching buyout costs. A few Giants reporters have alluded to Mara’s patience potentially extending past this year but it does feel like the team needs to show signs of progress for that to happen.
