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The NFL’s final four is finally set. The AFC is going to give us Patriots-Broncos in its championship game, while the NFC’s title bout will feature the third installment of Rams-Seahawks. That quartet includes the three teams that tied for the most regular-season wins in the league with 14, and Los Angeles, which spent most of the season being a trendy pick to take home the Lombardi Trophy.
If you favor accomplished quarterbacks in your championship games, then you better enjoy watching the Rams’ Matthew Stafford. Of the other three starting signal-callers in this round — New England’s Drake Maye, Denver’s Jarrett Stidham and Seattle’s Sam Darnold — they have four playoff appearances combined. It’s a different matter when we are talking about the star power of the coaches. L.A.’s Sean McVay and Denver’s Sean Payton already have won Super Bowls, while New England’s Mike Vrabel and Seattle’s Mike Macdonald are two of the best in the business.
So, what can we expect? Plenty of defense, for one. All of these teams advanced through the Divisional Round because they had players on that side of the ball producing crucial plays at key moments. These games should also be tight, given how the Divisional Round went down. Both Denver and Los Angeles had to survive overtime, while New England had a rock fight on its hands in beating Houston.
Now for the questions that this edition of The First Read wants to address. One category involves the teams still standing and why each one can win a championship. The other category will delve into those squads that saw their seasons end this weekend and what they most need to address in the offseason. Here’s what one writer thinks about both subjects …
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Why they can win it all: That defense.
Denver doesn’t have any other options left after quarterback Bo Nix broke his right ankle in overtime during the team’s 33-30 Divisional Round win over Buffalo. It’s time to dust off the same playbook that worked when this franchise won the Super Bowl a decade ago, which comes down to letting a great defense take over and doing just enough on offense to not screw things up. Head coach Sean Payton may outwardly express full faith in backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. That’s what coaches have to do in such dire moments. The reality is Payton knows a defense that dominated in so many areas — Denver ranked first in sacks, second in yards allowed and third in scoring D during the regular season — is the key to every dream this team has moving forward. It’s even more encouraging that Denver has started taking the ball away recently. The Broncos forced five turnovers in that victory over Buffalo, which is amazing when considering Denver produced just 14 takeaways in the regular season. The pass rush also should be able to disrupt New England quarterback Drake Maye when these teams meet in next Sunday’s AFC championship. Maye took five sacks in a Divisional Round win over Houston on Sunday, and the Chargers took him down five times in New England’s wild-card victory. Those must be numbers that excite the Broncos because Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper comprise one of the best pass-rushing duos in the league. Throw in All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and an assortment of other difference-makers, and you have a unit that can win the AFC title game and create problems in the Super Bowl. This wasn’t how the Broncos wanted to make a run. But it’s not like they’re attempting to become the first team to win a Super Bowl with a backup starting at quarterback. It’s happened before, most recently with Nick Foles and the 2017 Eagles. This team is still good enough to pull off the same feat.
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Why they can win it all: They’re the best team left. Period.
The Seahawks are riding an eight-game winning streak, but they’ve been most impressive in their last four contests. Ever since they rallied to overcome a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit in a 38-37 overtime win over the Rams in Week 16, this team has been operating with a level of confidence that is difficult to combat at this time of year. It’s noteworthy enough that the Seahawks are beating down opponents on a regular basis, including a 41-6 divisional win over the 49ers. What sets them apart is they perform as if they expect the outcome to be one-sided these days. If you discount that recent win over the Rams, Seattle has allowed just 44 points to the other teams it has faced over its last seven games. The ‘Hawks also forced 15 turnovers during that stretch and averaged 28.6 points per game. Sure, you can say the Seahawks were feasting on teams like the injury-ravaged 49ers and a Panthers squad that won the NFC South with an 8-9 record. That also would be a simplistic approach. Simply watch the Seahawks play and go off what your eyes tell you. In a league where parity has rarely been this pervasive, Seattle has separated itself with every passing week. Quarterback Sam Darnold has proven he can produce in the clutch and win in the playoffs. The running game has found its groove with Kenneth Walker III generating bigger numbers. And the receiving corps is dynamic and diversified, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba being the go-to guy, Cooper Kupp providing the championship experience and Rashid Shaheed delivering the big plays. Sure, it’s fair to argue that no team is a lock in a season like this. However, these Seahawks are as close as you’re going to get to that.
