Mike Florio ,
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On Thursday night, Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins did it again to the Buccaneers, beating them for the third straight time since signing with Atlanta. And it was another Thursday night masterclass, following last year’s franchise-record 509 passing yards with 373 and three touchdowns in a 29-28 win.
The latest string of Cousins starts wasn’t supposed to happen. He returned to the role of QB1 after the Falcons lost Michael Penix Jr. for the season. And while Cousins’s performances in seven 2025 games have been mixed, there’s something to be said for showing up under the lights against a team that is trying to win the division crown.
Here’s the question for Cousins and the Falcons. What happens next year?
Under the four-year deal Cousins signed in 2024, the Falcons owe Cousins $45 million in 2026. Already, $10 million of it is fully guaranteed.
It’s widely believed he’ll be released. With the guaranteed payment subject to offset, Cousins will likely make more than $10 million on the open market. Especially after Thursday night, during which he showed he still can perform at a high level. That would allow the Falcons to avoid the extra $10 million they’re already required to pay him on the fifth day of the 2026 league year.
He has already earned a bronze bust in the broken-bank Hall of Fame, with $321 million in career earnings through 2025. And he has proven to be a shrewd businessman, even though his first foray into free agency was unavoidable; the Commanders were willing to tag him twice, but they weren’t inclined to offer him a commensurate long-term deal.
Cousins opted for the Falcons in large part because they put multi-year financial security on the table, with $90 million fully guaranteed over two seasons. (The Vikings wanted to go year to year.) With the Falcons unlikely to pay him another $45 million, which would push his three-year haul to $135 million, he’ll likely be a free agent, for the third time.
Cousins will be hitting the market at a very good time. The supply of veterans with starting experience won’t meet the demand. Someone will consider making a run at the 37-year-old.
Teams that will (or at least could) be looking for a potential QB1 include the Jets, Steelers, Browns, Bengals (if Joe Burrow’s recent comments portend an exit from Cincinnati), Colts, Raiders, Saints, and Cardinals.
Then there’s the Vikings, who need a viable veteran alternative to J.J. McCarthy, in the event the cork never comes out of the bottle for him. Would they want to bring Cousins back? Would he be inclined to return?
It’s also possible he’ll stay in Atlanta under a reworked contract, especially with the jury still out on Penix, the eighth overall pick in the 2025 draft.
However it plays out, Cousins will likely get paid out another sizable contract. While it surely won’t be market level, Justin Fields got $20 million per year from the Jets in 2025. That should be the floor for Cousins, who may eventually creep toward $400 million in career earnings.
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