Every NFL offseason produces a handful of teams labeled as “sleepers.” Some earn the distinction because of splashy free-agent signings. Others receive attention after drafting a franchise quarterback. The New Orleans Saints fit neither category.
Instead, they enter the 2026 season with something far more valuable: continuity.
While national expectations remain measured following a 6-11 campaign in 2025, one respected national outlet believes New Orleans could surprise the league. The Athletic recently identified the Saints as one of the NFL’s potential breakout offenses, arguing that several key pieces are finally falling into place.
It’s a bold prediction.
But is it realistic?
When you dig beneath last year’s disappointing record, there is legitimate evidence suggesting the Saints may be much closer to turning the corner than many realize.
The path isn’t built on hype.
It’s built on fixing the exact problems that derailed the offense a season ago.
Five Reasons the Saints Could Break Out
1. Tyler Shough Is Positioned for a Year-Two Leap
Quarterback development rarely follows a straight line.
ForTyler Shough, however, the second half of last season offered plenty of reasons for optimism.
After taking over the starting role, Shough averaged roughly 250 passing yards per game while completing nearly 68 percent of his passes. More importantly, he displayed poise, anticipation, and command of the offense despite operating behind an inconsistent offensive line and with injuries affecting key skill-position players.
Those numbers weren’t empty statistics.
They represented the foundation of a franchise quarterback beginning to understand NFL defenses.
This offseason has only reinforced that trajectory.
Instead of waiting for organized team activities, Shough organized a private passing retreat with approximately 18 teammates in San Diego. With assistance from Saints legend Drew Brees, the quarterback invested in building chemistry months before training camp opened.
That level of leadership often separates good quarterbacks from great ones.
If Shough continues progressing as expected, New Orleans’ offense immediately becomes more dangerous.
2. Kellen Moore Finally Has the Right Quarterback
Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore enters his second season with far more clarity than he had a year ago.
Instead of installing a system while evaluating quarterbacks, Moore now has an offense built around one clear leader.
His philosophy emphasizes:
Pre-snap motion
Spacing concepts
Play-action
Timing routes
Quick decision-making
Those principles align naturally with Shough’s strengths.
The Saints no longer have to ask their quarterback to fit the offense.
The offense can now evolve around its quarterback.
That’s an important distinction entering Year Two.
Film Room: The Three Biggest Offensive Problems
Before discussing the breakout potential, it’s important to understand why last year’s offense struggled.
Red-Zone Failures
The Saints finished 32nd in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage, converting touchdowns on only 44.4 percent of trips inside the 20-yard line.
That statistic alone likely cost New Orleans multiple victories.
Good offenses finish drives.
Elite offenses score touchdowns.
Expect Moore to simplify reads near the goal line by emphasizing motion, rub concepts, option routes, and quicker decisions from Shough.
Improving to league average could dramatically change the Saints’ record.
Offensive Line Instability
No offense can consistently succeed while changing offensive line combinations nearly every week.
The Saints used 29 different offensive line combinations, tied for the second-most in the NFL.
That instability disrupted:
Pass protection
Communication
Timing
Run blocking
The projected starting five now features greater continuity with Kelvin Banks Jr., Taliese Fuaga, Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz, and a settled competition at the remaining guard spot.
Continuity—not necessarily star power—could become the unit’s biggest improvement.
The Run Game Must Return
Last season’s rushing attack averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, allowing defenses to remain patient in two-high safety shells while focusing on limiting explosive passing plays.
His ability to threaten defenses on outside-zone runs, screens, and angle routes gives New Orleans something it lacked last season: explosive versatility.
If Etienne forces linebackers to hesitate, Shough benefits immediately through more effective play-action opportunities.
Young Weapons Ready to Take the Next Step
Every breakout offense features emerging contributors.
The Saints believe they have several.
Chris Olave remains the unquestioned No. 1 receiver.
First-round rookie Jordyn Tyson brings vertical explosiveness and contested-catch ability.
Veteran Juwan Johnson continues to provide reliability over the middle.
Rookie tight end Oscar Delp adds athletic versatility that should create matchup problems against linebackers and safeties.
Ja’Lynn Polk enters training camp looking to carve out a meaningful role after building chemistry with Shough throughout the offseason.
If two or three of those players exceed expectations, New Orleans becomes significantly more difficult to defend.
The Numbers Explain the Opportunity
Last season’s offensive shortcomings are impossible to ignore.
2025 Offensive Indicators
6-11 overall record
32nd in red-zone touchdown percentage (44.4%)
Bottom-10 in explosive plays
Top-5 in stalled offensive drives
3.7 yards per carry
29 offensive line combinations
Those aren’t isolated problems.
They’re interconnected.
Improve one area, and the others often improve alongside it.
A better offensive line supports the run game.
A stronger run game creates more effective play-action.
The domino effect is exactly what Moore hopes to create in 2026.
Big Q’s Take
The Saints don’t need to become the Detroit Lions overnight.
They don’t need to lead the NFL in scoring.
They don’t even need to finish inside the top five offensively.
What they need is efficiency.
If Tyler Shough takes the expected second-year leap, if the offensive line remains healthy, and if Travis Etienne adds the explosive element New Orleans lacked last season, there’s no reason this offense can’t climb into the NFL’s top 12.
Pair that with a defense capable of returning to form under Brandon Staley, and suddenly the Saints aren’t simply competing for respect.
They’re competing for the NFC South.
That’s why national analysts are beginning to pay attention.
Why It Matters
The Athletic’s prediction isn’t based on blind optimism.
It’s based on measurable improvements that appear attainable.
Quarterback continuity.
A healthier offensive line.
A dynamic new running back.
An expanded receiving corps.
A second season under Kellen Moore’s offensive system.
Each factor alone may not transform the Saints.
Together, however, they form the blueprint for one of the NFL’s most intriguing offensive turnarounds.
The challenge now shifts from potential to production.
Training camp will reveal whether New Orleans can turn offseason optimism into regular-season success.
If it does, the Saints may not simply surprise the NFL.
They may redefine expectations throughout the NFC.
Gee Bino is a senior writer and columnist for The Who Dat Daily, covering the New Orleans Saints, Pelicans, LSU athletics, and the Gulf South sports landscape. He specializes in roster construction, player development, salary cap strategy, and breaking news coverage. Follow The Who Dat Daily for daily news, analysis, and exclusive team coverage.
