Contenders and pretenders entering NFL Week 5: Which of the seven 2-2 teams can you trust?

Copied!

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season, including:

But to kick things off, separating the slew of 2-2 outfits into contenders and pretenders …

We’re officially four weeks into the NFL season, so it is time to start taking stock of what’s happened over the past month. We know the Eagles are still the Eagles, as they’ve won 20 of their last 21 games stretching back to last season. Some other playoff teams from last season continue to look strong (the Bills, Bucs, Rams and Lions), while others are working through some challenges (the Chiefs, Ravens, Commanders and Texans). We’ve even seen some upstarts ascend and catch our attention (Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Seattle).

What makes the NFL great is you can never predict everything that is going to happen. Things change fast from year to year, and every team goes through the process of discovering who they really are. This is why the four-week mark provides a great opportunity to make sense of where this season is heading. It’s the first decent sample size that can give us an idea about who’s a real threat and who’s not going anywhere.

This won’t be a full-scale evaluation of all those teams with winning records. Instead, the focus is on those hovering at 2-2. About 37 percent of teams in that category have reached the postseason since 1990. This edition of The First Read will tell which of those current squads are strong choices to play in January.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are a tough call for this type of exercise. They would be more intriguing if they played in a different division. Since they’re operating in the NFC West, it’s hard to sell them as a serious threat for a playoff spot. There are too many teams in that division to think Arizona is going to magically climb over them for a playoff spot (the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks are all 3-1). It’s even harder to do that when you’re dealing with some challenging offensive problems. There isn’t much chemistry between quarterback  Kyler Murray  and second-year wide receiver  Marvin Harrison Jr.  A foot injury ended the season for running back  James Conner  in Week 3, and there aren’t enough weapons after standout tight end  Trey McBride  . Yeah, the defense is a little better but that’s only going to get this team so far. The other teams in this division are a step ahead of the Cardinals. PICK: PRETENDER

The good news for the Falcons is their beleaguered offense finally showed signs of life. That 34-27 win over Washington revealed a lot of what Atlanta thinks it can be. Quarterback  Michael Penix Jr.  passed for 313 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. Running backs  Bijan Robinson  (181 total yards) and  Tyler Allgeier  scored touchdowns. Wide receiver  Drake London  had 110 yards on eight receptions. Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris had been waiting weeks for those types of numbers, so you have to hope this is a major turning point for the team. On the other hand, the Falcons already have dropped two division games, and one of those came in a 30-0 loss to Carolina. You don’t get that taste out of your mouth with one win over a Commanders team that didn’t have  Jayden Daniels  available. The best hope Atlanta has of reaching the playoffs involves winning the NFC South. They need to start winning division games for that to happen. PICK: PRETENDER

The Bears are easily the most confounding team in this bunch. They have talent and good coaching, but it often feels like they’re falling short of expectations when you watch them. That’s probably just a byproduct of hype. Having the first overall pick in the 2024 draft playing quarterback (  Caleb Williams  ) and an acclaimed offensive wizard at head coach (Ben Johnson) makes it really hard to be rational about anything this team does. A lot of people — this writer included — keep waiting for the fireworks to start with this offense, and it remains a slow burn. The first two weeks were rough for Chicago (a blown fourth-quarter lead against the Vikings and a 52-21 shellacking at Detroit). The wins have come over the last couple weeks, but there’s nothing overly impressive about beating Dallas or Las Vegas. The problem the Bears face is the same one most teams in the NFC will deal with this season: There are too many teams in the mix for playoff spots. The Bears certainly have the potential to get hot and qualify for the postseason. However, it’s not worth jumping on that bandwagon until a few quality wins emerge. PICK: PRETENDER

It was a great weekend for the Chiefs. Their offense finally shook its early-season funk and performed at the level we’re more accustomed to seeing in a 37-20 win over Baltimore. Kansas City also picked up a game in the AFC West race after the Chargers fell to the Giants in New York. If both those contests had gone the other way, then the Chiefs would’ve fallen 3.5 games behind Los Angeles. Now, Kansas City has renewed confidence and plenty of reasons to think about catching up in the division.   Patrick Mahomes   finally looked like himself, as he threw four touchdown passes against Baltimore. The defense stifled   Lamar Jackson   once again and kept a team that had been averaging 37 points a game in check. There should still be concerns about how viable the Chiefs’ running game is — the team averaged 2.8 yards per carry when Mahomes and wide receiver  Xavier Worthy  weren’t carrying the ball – but head coach Andy Reid did show more commitment to it. This was a get-right game for the Chiefs against a formidable opponent. That says a lot about where they’ll be come January, which is where they usually are. PICK: CONTENDER

The Vikings are also waiting for their starting quarterback to return from injury, as   J.J. McCarthy   has missed the last two games (including Sunday’s 24-21 loss to Pittsburgh in Dublin). Some reports had McCarthy missing between two and four weeks when he sustained that high ankle sprain in Week 2. If he actually needs to miss another couple weeks — and head coach Kevin O’Connell has given no definitive timeline — the Vikings could survive that. They have the Browns next week in London and a bye after that. Anything past that point and it gets real sticky for Minnesota. The Vikings face the Eagles, Chargers, Lions and Ravens after the bye, which marks their most grueling stretch of the season. It doesn’t matter how creative the defense is under coordinator Brian Flores or how resourceful the Vikings have been with backup quarterbacks under O’Connell. That’s a brutal gauntlet to go through without your starting quarterback. We’ll give the Vikings the benefit of the doubt here, but they better get McCarthy back soon. PICK: CONTENDER

There are things happening in New England that you want to see at the start of Mike Vrabel’s tenure as head coach. Second-year quarterback  Drake Maye  has shown signs of improvement, as he’s completed 74 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and two interceptions through four games. After a season-opening loss to Las Vegas, the Patriots also have two wins over teams more in their weight class (a 33-27 win over Miami in Week 2 and Sunday’s 42-6 beatdown of Carolina). The problem is New England has never felt like a team capable of an instant turnaround. It isn’t brimming with talent and the competition for playoff spots in the AFC is going to be fierce. You already have the usual suspects when it comes to championship contenders, a group that includes Buffalo and Kansas City. The road to the postseason for an upstart team gets even tougher when factoring in those squads that have started the year hot (which includes the Colts and Jaguars) and those that are good enough to rebound from slow starts (Baltimore, Denver and Houston). New England already looks better with Vrabel at the helm. But don’t get too crazy with this one. It’s going to take some time. PICK: PRETENDER

The Commanders felt the absence of quarterback Jayden Daniels this past weekend. Backup  Marcus Mariota  was capable enough to lead this team past Las Vegas in Week 3, but the Falcons offered a different test in a 34-27 loss. The problem is the Falcons didn’t feel like a strong challenge coming in, as their offense was averaging just 14 points a game through the first three weeks. Not only was Mariota an issue – he only threw for 156 yards – but Atlanta lit up the defense for 435 yards and several explosive plays. It says here that the defense will look a lot better when Daniels is back from his knee injury, along with a couple other key performers on offense (wide receivers  Terry McLaurin  and  Noah Brown  were sidelined as well on Sunday). It’s been reported that Daniels should return for next week’s game against the Chargers. That’s when you’ll see Washington set things right. They made the playoffs last season with a mediocre defense. They can do it again. PICK: CONTENDER

THREE UP

Nacua probably wasn’t a trendy pick for Offensive Player of the Year honors when this season began, but he’s the early leader now. With 42 receptions and 503 yards already — both of which are tops in the league — he’s trending toward 179 catches and 2,138 yards. You would think there would be no way for Nacua to maintain that pace until you look at his stat line from the Rams’ win over Indianapolis on Sunday. He had 13 receptions for 170 yards, which marked the third time in four weeks that he’s hit double-digit receptions.  Davante Adams  was supposed to be the receiver who elevated the Los Angeles offense. It’s apparent already that Nacua is the biggest beneficiary of that addition.

Read More