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Entering Week 12 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team’s postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com’s Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.
A few notes before we dig in:
All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 18 unless otherwise noted below.
Terms defined:
If win: A team’s chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
If lose: A team’s chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
Playoff leverage: The difference between a team’s probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses, essentially capturing the stakes of that game: a high playoff leverage indicates the game can significantly influence the team’s playoff chances, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game will have a lesser impact.
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NFL playoff picture entering Week 12
AFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %
1. Broncos (9-2) 96% BYE BYE 26%
2. Patriots (9-2) 97% 99% 93% 29%
3. Colts (8-2) 90% 97% 85% 21%
4. Steelers (6-4) 39% 52% 31% 1%
5. Bills (7-3) 93% 97% 86% 17%
6. Chargers (7-4) 60% BYE BYE 2%
7. Jaguars (6-4) 64% 74% 51% 3%
What a massive win for the Broncos organization on Sunday. (Patting myself on the back for calling the upset in August … while also smacking myself in the forehead for chickening out more recently.) In holding off the hard-charging Chiefs, Denver not only widened its lead in the AFC West (more on that below) but moved to No. 1 in the conference standings. … For one week, at least. The Broncos still have just a one in four chance of retaining their lead, per the model, in part because they lost to the Colts (8-2) earlier this year, but also because they’ll face far tougher opponents the rest of the way than New England (9-2) will. …
Speaking of the Patriots … they have a golden opportunity to improve to 6-0 on the road when they visit Cincinnati on Sunday — the site of arguably the biggest upset of the 2024 season. A win this weekend would also leapfrog the Pats over the Broncos (who are on a bye) to the top of the table. Probably should’ve led with that.
Everything seems to be coming up New England these days. Not only do the Pats have a two-win advantage over the Bills in the AFC East, they also have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league (.371) and a clutch Week 14 bye. It’s no wonder, then, that their playoff probability (97%) is the highest of any AFC team, or that they are the current frontrunners to earn home-field advantage throughout.
Unfortunately for the Colts, they’re on the opposite end of the difficulty spectrum, with the fourth-hardest remaining slate. With tilts at Kansas City, Jacksonville and Seattle still to go, plus four games against the Texans and Jaguars, Indy’s road to No. 1 has some potential potholes. That Week 2 win over Denver is looking increasingly important these days.
Pretty wild that the fifth-seeded Bills, for all of their foibles, have the third-best playoff probability in the conference, especially with trips to Pittsburgh and New England still to come, as well as a Week 17 home affair with the Eagles. Having head-to-head wins already locked in against two of the AFC’s fringe teams — Baltimore and Kansas City (and potentially Houston on Thursday) — certainly helps their case if tie-breakers come into play.
NGS is gonna be modela non grata in the Steelers locker room after generating a 39% playoff probability for the AFC North leaders. As if that slight wasn’t enough, the model also says that if the Steelers don’t land the No. 4 seed (19%) by season’s end, their next most likely playoff berth is as the third wild-card team. That’s some next-gen disrespect. Although the Steelers have already beaten the Patriots and Colts this year, they have a grueling three-game stretch coming up: at Chicago, vs. Buffalo, at Baltimore. If they survive that gauntlet, seems like the computers (and some humans) might owe Mike Tomlin’s crew an apology.
The Colts, Jaguars and Texans currently own three of the top eight spots in the conference hierarchy. That means there’s a plausible future in which three AFC South teams earn postseason bids. Think about that for a second.
Very weird not to see the Chiefs in one of the top four slots above. Even weirder not to see them represented in the picture at all. Still, Kansas City’s shadow looms large over the AFC playoff race. With home games against the Colts, Chargers and Broncos still on tap, the Chiefs figure to have an outsized influence on the final conference standings by season’s end.
NFC Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %
1. Eagles (8-2) 99% 99% 99% 41%
2. Rams (8-2) 99% 99% 97% 42%
3. Bears (7-3) 59% 69% 45% 2%
4. Buccaneers (6-4) 85% 93% 82% 2%
5. Seahawks (7-3) 91% 93% 80% 7%
6. Packers (6-3-1) 73% 81% 57% 2%
7. 49ers (7-4) 85% 91% 71% 2%
The Eagles keep rattling off wins despite questionable coaching decisions, ugly offensive performances and an extremely tough schedule. At some point, these close calls might catch up with Philly. For now, though, Nick Sirianni’s team is sitting pretty atop the table.
Philadelphia has done a number on the NFC North over that past month or so — beating the sixth-seeded Packers and the now-eighth-seeded Lions back to back, as well as the Vikings in Week 7. They’ll have a chance to complete the division sweep when the Bears visit in two weeks.
I’m sorry, that should’ve read, “when THE NFC NORTH-LEADING CHICAGO BEARS visit in two weeks.” Ben Johnson’s club sat at the bottom of the division as recently as Week 6. But with four wins over a five-game span, including three in row by a combined 11 points(!), Chicago has jumped to the top of the North and into the No. 3 seed. That game I mentioned earlier, against the Eagles? That’s not just for division bragging rights anymore. With a win, Chicago could find itself leading the entire conference. Of course, a few things would likely have to happen between now and then, like the Bears beating the fourth-seeded Steelers this weekend (in what the model projects as the most consequential game of the week) and the streaking Rams dropping at least one of their next two games. But the No. 1 seed is legitimately in play for Chicago entering Week 12. That’s an incredible statement after the turmoil the team and its fan base experienced last season.
As fun as it was just now to daydream about a Bears first-round bye, their chances of even making the playoffs are still not much better than a coin flip (59%). Why? Well, for one, after lucking out with the easiest strength of schedule through the first 11 weeks of the campaign (.348), Chicago is now tied with Green Bay for the hardest final act (.592). That these two bitter rivals (and playoff hopefuls) are still scheduled to meet twice means the NFC race could get messy down the stretch.
One last pseudo Bears nugget (I promise!): At 2%, Chicago’s odds to win the conference are closer to Carolina’s (.05%) than they are to L.A.’s (42%). In fact, the Rams currently boast the highest probability to finish No. 1 overall, which is notable, considering the Eagles (41%) are already 7-1 in conference play (the Rams are 3-2) and own the H2H tie-breaker.
But the Rams still have several barriers between them and the 1 seed, beginning with a visit from the Bucs this weekend. Among the 10 teams with the toughest strengths of schedule to date, Tampa and L.A. are the only two that currently sport a winning record, which speaks to why both clubs have such strong playoff probabilities. (The Bucs also benefit from playing in the NFC South, of course.)
Bucs-Rams isn’t the only Week 12 clash on tap between these two divisions, with the seventh-seeded Niners set to host the ninth-seeded Panthers on Monday night. As one of only two matchups this weekend (Steelers-Bears is the other) in which both teams’ postseason leverage is at least 20 percentage points, this prime-time tilt could have major implications across multiple playoff races.
Which teams are on the playoff bubble?
8. Texans (5-5) 30% 45% 21%
9. Chiefs (5-5) 52% 63% 35%
10. Ravens (5-5) 77% 81% 61%
The Chiefs, Ravens and Texans — all 10-plus-win playoff teams from a year ago — each sit at .500, with 15 losses between them. That’s more L’s than the trio totaled throughout the entire 2024 campaign. Parity!
With Sunday’s loss in Denver, the Chiefs have now dropped back-to-back games twice in a season for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. They’ve been on the wrong end of all five of their one-score contests this year, too, after going 12 for 12 in 2024 (including playoffs). So, clearly, the 2025 Chiefs are not quite the version we’ve grown used to. But with a 50-50 playoff probability, I would think most folks would still lean toward the Mahomes side of that coin. Kansas City will welcome the Colts (more on that in a second), Texans, Chargers and Broncos to Arrowhead in the coming weeks, which means the Chiefs will have prime opportunities to make up ground in the standings. And though they’ve struggled away from K.C. this year (1-4, including in Brazil), their three remaining road games are against teams currently 7-22-1 combined.
As far as Week 12 goes, the Chiefs have to have Sunday’s game versus Indy. They stand to forfeit 28.56 points in leverage with a loss, with their playoff percentage plummeting to worse than 1:3. That’s a staggering number, and by far the biggest difference in playoff probability any team faces this week.
Despite losses to the Bills, Chiefs and Texans, the Ravens carry a notably better playoff probability into Week 12 than their other bubble onlookers. They can thank a relatively uncompetitive AFC North and the league schedule-makers for that. With two matchups against the Steelers still to play, Baltimore doesn’t need any help to overtake Pittsburgh in the division. Of the 7,724 simulations in which Baltimore qualified for the postseason, just 373 were via a wild-card berth.
8. Lions (6-4) 74% 80% 56%
9. Panthers (6-5) 21% 36% 15%
The Lions’ crushing loss in Philadelphia on Sunday night wiped them from the playoff picture. But with a postseason probability of 74%, their absence could be temporary. Detroit’s remaining slate is certainly not a cakewalk, but as I mentioned above, it’s also way more palatable than what Chicago and Green Bay have ahead of them. The Lions will get another crack against both division rivals, who are still slated to go two rounds themselves. So there will be opportunities for Detroit to re-enter the frame.
Carolina faces the third-toughest remaining schedule in the league, with matchups against the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks on the horizon. However, they also have both games against the Bucs to go, which means, entering Week 12, the Panthers control their path into the playoffs. Having control and acting upon it are obviously two different things. By winning in San Francisco this weekend, the Panthers would oust the Niners from the top seven seeds. And if the Bucs also were to fall to the Rams, Carolina would find itself looking down on Tampa Bay in the standings. It’s all there for the Panthers … if they can seize it.