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Entering Week 17 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team’s postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com’s Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like “If win,” “If lose” and “playoff leverage” click here.
NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Dec. 23 unless otherwise noted below.
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NFL playoff picture entering Week 17
AFC Playoff Picture Playoff % If Win If Lose No. 1 seed %
1. Broncos (12-3) 100% — — 52%
2. Patriots (12-3) 100% — — 31%
3. Jaguars (11-4) 100% — — 11%
4. Steelers (9-6) 91% 100% 78% 0%
5. Chargers (11-4) 100% — — 4%
6. Bills (11-4) 100% — — 2%
7. Texans (10-5) 97% 100% 94% <1%
8. Colts (8-7) 3% 11% 0% 0%
9. Ravens (7-8) 9% 21% 0% 0%
Four teams — the Bills, Chargers, Jaguars and Patriots — punched their playoff tickets in Week 16, joining Denver in the AFC playoff bracket. Just two spots remain. One has been allocated to the AFC North champion — probably the Steelers (91%) — who will almost certainly enter the postseason as the No. 4 seed (more on this in a second). The other will likely go to the Texans (96.6%), who need one more win/tie (at Chargers, vs. Colts) or Colts loss/tie (vs. Jaguars, at Texans) to secure their spot.
We’ve seen a lot of unimaginable outcomes this season, as recently as last week. But Indianapolis, at 3.4 percent, sneaking its way into the tournament at this late stage would arguably take the cake.
In handing Denver loss No. 3, Jacksonville delivered an early gift to the other four AFC teams still contending for first place in the conference. The Broncos remain in control of this race, but any future misstep (say, vs. the Chargers in Week 18) could lead to their ouster from the top spot.
No team benefited more from the Broncos’ Week 16 stumble than the Patriots , who, by then beating Baltimore on Sunday night, tripled their odds to grab the No. 1 seed from a week ago (11% to 31%). Given New England’s favorable remaining schedule (at Jets, vs. Dolphins), the pressure is on Sean Payton’s club to bounce back quickly (the Broncos visit Kansas City on Thursday) and convincingly.
If neither New England nor Denver reach 14 wins, though, then this competition opens up considerably. In the event the Jaguars win out (at Colts, vs. Titans) to finish 13-4 and join a multi-team tie at the top of the table, they would clinch the AFC’s playoff bye. If Jacksonville comes up short of that total, though, while the Chargers win out (vs. Texans, at Broncos), then L.A. would be crowned conference and division champs by season’s end.
The Bills are still in the hunt, too, but they need even more outcomes to break their way. First and foremost, they have to get to 13 wins (vs. Eagles, vs. Jets). Then, they’d need Denver, New England, Jacksonville and L.A. all to finish 1-1 or worse over the next two weeks. In that scenario, Buffalo would win the AFC East over the Patriots and then hold the tie-breaker over the Broncos for the conference. A possible future, but not a probable one. What’s more likely to happen should the Bills win out, then, is that they’d enter the tournament as the No. 5 seed (38%).
Technically, the Texans could also still win the conference. But the NGS model spit out that possibility in just 2 of 10,000 simulations, which … isn’t promising. For those hopeful Houston-heads out there, here’s what would need to occur:
Texans win out (including at LAC):
Broncos lose out (including vs. LAC):
Bills and Jaguars finish 1-1 or worse.
How about a Texans Week 17 scenario that’s a bit more realistic? If they beat the Chargers on Saturday, the Texans move up to No. 6. If the Jags then lose at Indianapolis on Sunday, Houston climbs all the way up to third place. Of course, before the Texans can entertain the idea of a postseason bye or even a home playoff game, they first need to qualify for the tournament. …
While Houston is on the verge of clinching, the Colts are conversely on the brink of elimination. And yet, despite five straight losses, Indy enters Week 17 needing only to win its game (vs. Jaguars) and for the Chargers to beat the Texans to potentially trigger a win-and-in scenario at Houston in the season finale. I say “potentially” because there is a very specific six-outcome scenario — starting with the Chiefs beating the Broncos on Christmas — involving strength of schedule/strength of victory tie-breakers that would still put Houston in over Indy. But let’s worry about that next week, if we have to at all.
With Mike Tomlin’s streak of consecutive non-losing seasons secured (19 and counting), the Steelers can now focus on solidifying their spot in the playoffs. A Ravens loss/tie at Green Bay on Saturday night would do the trick, as would a Steelers win/tie at Cleveland on Sunday. Although Pittsburgh’s postseason seed would almost certainly be No. 4, there’s a 0.5 percent chance the Steelers enter as the No. 3 seed. For that to happen, they would need to win out, and both the Jaguars and the Texans would have to lose out.