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Entering Week 18 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team’s postseason chances. Visit NFL.com’s Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.
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NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 8:50 a.m. ET on Dec. 30 unless otherwise noted below.
NFL playoff picture entering Week 18
1. Broncos (13-3) 82% 6% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2. Patriots (13-3) 15% 69% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3. Jaguars (12-4) 3% 25% 58% 0% 6% 7% <1%
4. Steelers (9-7) 0% 0% 0% 40% 0% 0% 0%
5. Texans (11-5) 0% 0% 14% 0% 68% 15% 3%
6. Chargers (11-5) 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 38% 57%
7. Bills (11-5) 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 40% 39%
9. Ravens (8-8) 0% 0% 0% 60% 0% 0% 0%
Broncos: The AFC West champions enter Week 18 needing either a win (vs. Chargers) or losses/ties by both the Patriots (vs. Dolphins) and Jaguars (vs. Titans) to clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Should the Broncos fall to the Bolts, however, while the other two contenders both win, Denver would drop to No. 3 in the standings. In fact, per the NGS model, in the event of a Broncos loss, they’re more likely to finish in third place (12%) than in second (6%).
Patriots: With the AFC East secured and 13 wins already on their ledger, the Pats hit Week 18 guaranteed a top-three finish in the conference — with the second seed being their most probable slot (69%). To supplant the Broncos atop the table, New England would need a better Week 18 result than Denver. On the other hand, to avoid dropping down to No. 3, the Pats either need to win/tie or have Jaguars lose/tie (vs. Titans).
Jaguars: Jacksonville enters the season’s final weekend with the widest range of outcomes of any of the remaining AFC contenders. The Jags can rise as high as No. 1 in the conference or fall as far as No. 7, depending on how the weekend plays out. But their most likely outcome is to clinch the AFC South (86%), which they can accomplish with a win/tie over the Titans or a Texans loss/tie vs. the Colts. In fact, their most probable playoff slot continues to be the three seed (58%), though they did earn one of the top two seeds in roughly 28 percent of simulations:
Jaguars win + Broncos or Patriots loss = No. 2 seed (25%)
Jaguars win + Broncos loss AND Patriots loss = No. 1 seed (3%)
Steelers and Ravens: Thanks to the two most consequential upsets of Week 17, we’ll be treated to a winner-takes-all elimination game to decide the AFC North champion — and the conference’s final playoff team. Not a bad way to wrap up the 2025 regular season.
Texans: Houston climbed two spots in the conference hierarchy, to No. 5, over the weekend and remains in contention, with Jacksonville, for the AFC South title. However, the Texans’ odds of capturing the division crown are slim (14%), with a loss/tie or Jags win/tie (vs. Titans) ending this race in their rivals’ favor. Houston, then, will likely enter the dance as a wild card — specifically, as the No. 5 seed (68%). Although the Texans could still slide a spot (or two) should they lose and either the Bills or Chargers (or both) win, the Texans at least have something beyond wild-card seeding at stake in their season finale. With L.A. and Buffalo unable to move any higher than fifth place, it’s possible both of those teams rest some of their starters in advance of the tournament.