NFL Pro fantasy football preview: Week 16 insights
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Fifteen weeks in the books, two more to go — and it’s the fantasy semifinals (for most of us)! To better understand and decipher the storylines of the week, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro context and the fantasy fallout we can expect!
For three straight weeks, both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have scored 13+ fantasy points. Over that span, Williams has totaled 257 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns on 44 touches (52.7 fantasy points), while Corum has logged 283 yards and four touchdowns on 31 touches (53.3 fantasy points). Williams has played 56.7% of the snaps, to Corum’s 37.4%, so it hasn’t quite been a 50-50 volume split, but Corum’s explosiveness and efficiency have made him an equally valuable fantasy play over that span. At this point, the reality is that Williams has dropped from high-end to low-end RB1 range, while Corum has elevated from bench asset to weekly starter, while HC Sean McVay and OC Mike LaFleur look to “keep Kyren fresh” for the playoffs.
However, both are going to be hard-pressed for fantasy points against the Seahawks front. The Seahawks currently boast NFL Pro’s number one overall rushing defense and are top 10 in all nine rushing categories Pro evaluates, outside of QB scrambles. They’re also NFL Pro’s top defense against outside runs and designed runs and have allowed just four rushing touchdowns to running backs, second fewest in the league … behind only the Rams. The last two weeks, they held Bijan Robinson to 9.4 fantasy points and Jonathan Taylor to 13.1 — and while Williams himself was the last back with a strong outing against Seattle, that came in Week 11 before the Corum breakout. With both backs splitting touches against a very tough opponent, the ceilings might be significantly lowered this Thursday night.
Fantasy Fallout: Most people are still starting Williams as an RB2, and potentially flexing Corum as well, but be aware that they’ll be fighting for fantasy value both with each other and with the Seattle defense. If you have multiple better options, one or both of the Rams could see the bench in the semifinals.
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Somewhat quietly, Bryce Young has put together a series of stream-worthy starts the last month or so. He’s averaged 19.51 fantasy points per game over his last four contests, and while his floor has been low in tougher matchups, his ceiling has elevated to as high as 31.82 points (against Atlanta). To add to the deliberation, the Buccaneers have been incredibly soft against quarterbacks lately, surrendering 18+ fantasy points to the last six starters they’ve faced, including a combined 48.18 by Tyler Shough and Kirk Cousins the last two weeks. In fact, since Week 10, the only pass defenses surrendering a higher success rate than Tampa Bay’s 51.4% are the Cardinals and Commanders. So can you stream Young in a theoretically good matchup, and can you play the rest of the Carolina offense as well?
The major concern would be Young’s ability to diagnose and dissect Tampa Bay’s pass rush. Todd Bowles’ defense blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league (34.6% of dropbacks) and Young’s Panthers currently own NFL Pro’s fifth-worst efficiency rating against the blitz. The Carolina QB has thrown six TDs to five INTs against the blitz this season, with a 61.2% completion rate, a 79.7 passer rating and -0.30 EPA/dropback. All that said, the Bucs aren’t particularly efficient when blitzing — they’re NFL Pro’s 22nd-ranked pass defense on such dropbacks — and Young has been much better against a standard pass rush. This has the makings of one of Young’s up days, but those are prone to flip without much warning and divisional rivals often incite unpredictable results.