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Four weeks left. Four weeks to storm into the playoffs or peter out.
The 2025 season is hitting its crescendo, with nearly every Week 15 matchup having playoff implications for one or both teams. The leverage gained with each win for playoff-hopeful teams is matched by the added desperation that comes from a defeat. Not every loss will mathematically eliminate clubs, but at this stage, coming up short is much more difficult to overcome.
Some teams, like the Chiefs, need a win to give themselves any hope. The Ravens and Panthers would see their odds dip below 20% with a loss. Some squads are spiraling and desperately need a victory to right the ship. Others, facing stiff tests down the road, need to pick up a win before things become more difficult.
Ahead of a massive Week 15 slate, I’ve identified my top five teams most in need of a win.
Week 15 opponent: at Seahawks
They’re at DEFCON: Sign a 44-year-old Granddad in Indy.
Bringing in Philip Rivers underscores the desperation the Colts are experiencing after Daniel Jones’ season-ending Achilles injury. A QB room that was a question entering the season appeared to be stabilized by Jones. Now it’s more chaotic than a four-year-old’s bedroom after a playdate. Anthony Richardson remains on injured reserve. Rookie Riley Leonard is dealing with a PCL sprain. Clearly, Indy doesn’t trust practice-squad QB Brett Rypien much.
Rivers hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since Jan. 9, 2021, when the Colts lost to Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. That was the last time they made the postseason. Perhaps the football gods have a sense of humor.
The Colts were off to a 7-1 start, with Jones playing superbly. They looked poised to coast into the postseason. The deadline deal for Sauce Gardner was supposed to be the move that put them over the top. Now, Gardner is hurt, Jones is done for the year, and Indy is spiraling.
Losing four of their last five games, the Colts have fallen from the No. 1 seed in the AFC in Week 10 to out of playoff position. Sometimes, four weeks is all it takes to flip the script in the NFL. They have four more to write. Shane Steichen’s club has a 32% chance to make the postseason, per Next Gen Stats, with a measly 6% shot to recapture the division. A win Sunday boosts their odds to 58%, while a loss pushes them to 27%. The 31 percentage-point swing is the highest of any AFC team in Week 15.
They get no reprieve down the stretch. Sunday, they face 10-3 Seattle on the road, then host 9-4 San Francisco, 9-4 Jacksonville and head to 8-5 Houston for the finale. If Indy can’t find a way to best a very good Mike Macdonald defense in Week 15, Rivers’ comeback will be a footnote that does nothing more than push off his Hall of Fame candidacy for five years.
Week 15 opponent: vs. Chargers
Welp, scratch off almost everything I wrote last week. Swing and a miss.
The Chiefs lost the first game of their five-game sprint to the end of the season, with Andy Reid’s offense unable to puncture the Houston defense. Setting aside the controversial fourth-down decisions, the issues that have plagued the team all season were on full display. Patrick Mahomes couldn’t connect on splash plays. The run game offered no reprieve outside of 2-yard dives by Kareem Hunt in short-yardage situations. And the pass-catchers can’t stop dropping balls. Travis Kelce looks like a man seeing the end of the road right in front of him.
The loss to Houston dropped the Chiefs’ playoff chances to 10%, per NGS. Their streak of AFC West titles has already been snapped at nine, with their lone shot at extending their playoff streak running through the wild card (1% chance at No. 6 seed; 10% chance at No. 7 seed).
The room for error now is zero. A Week 15 loss would officially eliminate the Chiefs from playoff contention. Even with a win, their odds only increase to 16%. Kansas City needs to win out, and it needs help from others.
On Sunday the Chiefs face a Chargers team that bested the Eagles in overtime on Monday night, with Justin Herbert gritting through a broken left hand. Kansas City lost the season opener to Los Angeles in Brazil, a game that feels like it happened eons ago. Since then, the reigning AFC champions have stumbled in close games, and outside of a three-game win streak in October, haven’t been able to keep their heads above water.
Losers of four of their last five, the Chiefs are on the brink. A win would keep their hopes alive for another week.
